Aurora Innovation
AURNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $4.55 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $4.51–$4.74 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 27.2M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 10 projected Projected for 2027-02-10 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $3.60–$8.57 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own AUR if Aurora can become a high-margin, asset-light provider of Driver-as-a-Service by leveraging its platformed Aurora Driver (proprietary FMCW lidar, virtual testing, perception stack) and OEM/tier-1 partnerships to scale driverless trucking first, then expand into ride-hailing.
AUR price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Aurora's launch of Aurora Driver for Freight and its OEM/tier-1 partnerships will convert highway freight demand into material recurring fee-per-mile revenue as the DaaS model scales.HoldingMateriality: High
MD&A: Launch of Aurora Driver for Freight in April 2025 and commenced revenue recognition in Q2 2025. If true, revenue will expand rapidly and justify the valuation; if false, the company will remain a high-burn R&D story with little path to profitability.
Watch: OEMs (e.g., PACCAR, Volvo, Toyota) decide to integrate competing autonomous stacks in-house or sign exclusive deals with rivals.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: Launch of Aurora Driver for Freight in April 2025 and commenced revenue recognition in Q2 2025.
Open source ↗If Aurora shifts from operating its own pilot fleets to partner-managed DaaS fleets, operating leverage and asset-light economics should materially improve operating margins over time.HoldingMateriality: High
MD&A: explicit plan that Aurora expects a DaaS model to enable an asset-light and high margin revenue stream. Margin recovery would turn multi‑billion implied expectations into achievable returns; failure to hand off operations means persistent heavy losses and required future dilution.
Watch: Fleet operators or OEMs insist Aurora maintain operational control (limiting move to partner-managed model).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: explicit plan that Aurora expects a DaaS model to enable an asset-light and high margin revenue stream.
Open source ↗Aurora's near-term commercialization depends on continuing access to equity capital; recent ATM sales materially extended runway but sustained negative operating cash flow will require further financing until DaaS revenue scales.HoldingMateriality: Medium
MD&A: ATM Program — sold ~151M shares in 2025 raising $898M gross and $874M net proceeds. If capital access remains open, Aurora can continue building and commercializing; if capital markets close or dilute access, growth will slow or be cut back regardless of technical progress.
Watch: Wider market sell-off or regulatory/ESG pressure limits ability to raise equity at acceptable prices.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A: ATM Program — sold ~151M shares in 2025 raising $898M gross and $874M net proceeds.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Aurora's launch of Aurora Driver for Freight and its OEM/tier-1 partnerships will convert highway freight demand into material recurring fee-per-mile revenue as the DaaS model scales. If true, revenue will expand rapidly and justify the valuation; if false, the company will remain a high-burn R&D story with little path to profitability.
If Aurora shifts from operating its own pilot fleets to partner-managed DaaS fleets, operating leverage and asset-light economics should materially improve operating margins over time. Margin recovery would turn multi‑billion implied expectations into achievable returns; failure to hand off operations means persistent heavy losses and required future dilution.
Aurora's near-term commercialization depends on continuing access to equity capital; recent ATM sales materially extended runway but sustained negative operating cash flow will require further financing until DaaS revenue scales. If capital access remains open, Aurora can continue building and commercializing; if capital markets close or dilute access, growth will slow or be cut back regardless of technical progress.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Aurora can become a high-margin, asset-light provider of Driver-as-a-Service by leveraging its platformed Aurora Driver (proprietary FMCW lidar, virtual testing, perception stack) and OEM/tier-1 partnerships to scale driverless trucking first, then expand into ride-hailing.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Aurora Innovation
Where the evidence on Aurora Innovation stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 8, 2026). Of its 3 thesis points, 3 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Aurora's launch of Aurora Driver for Freight and its OEM/tier-1 partnerships will convert highway freight demand into material recurring fee-per-mile revenue as the DaaS model scales.
If Aurora shifts from operating its own pilot fleets to partner-managed DaaS fleets, operating leverage and asset-light economics should materially improve operating margins over time.
Aurora's near-term commercialization depends on continuing access to equity capital; recent ATM sales materially extended runway but sustained negative operating cash flow will require further financing until DaaS revenue scales.
Bear case: what would count against it
OEMs (e.g., PACCAR, Volvo, Toyota) decide to integrate competing autonomous stacks in-house or sign exclusive deals with rivals.
Fleet operators or OEMs insist Aurora maintain operational control (limiting move to partner-managed model).
Wider market sell-off or regulatory/ESG pressure limits ability to raise equity at acceptable prices.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Aurora Innovation’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Aurora Innovation, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Aurora Innovation.
- Revenue decline
Early warning
The break condition read on the trailing twelve months through Aurora Innovation’s latest quarterly report, ahead of the annual figure it is written on.
- Revenue decline, trailing 12 months
Across all companies, this kind of early warning has happened 3,039 times before. Those stocks beat the market by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 32% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Aurora Innovation filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-28: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
Aurora Innovation filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-23: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Aurora Innovation filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- OEMs (e.g., PACCAR, Volvo, Toyota) decide to integrate competing autonomous stacks in-house or sign exclusive deals with rivals.
- Fleet operators or OEMs insist Aurora maintain operational control (limiting move to partner-managed model).
- Wider market sell-off or regulatory/ESG pressure limits ability to raise equity at acceptable prices.
AUR news
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Financial statements
AUR income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
AUR: quick answers
- When does Aurora Innovation (AUR) report earnings next?
- Aurora Innovation's next results are projected for February 10, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 28, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is AUR's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 243M AUR shares were sold short, up 7.6% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 11 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. AUR short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded AUR?
- 4 trades in AUR have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed AUR trade
- Which well-known investors own AUR?
- 4 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported AUR shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Durable Capital Partners, 0.7%; ARK Investment Management (Cathie Wood), 0.3%; Third Point (Dan Loeb), 0.1%. Fund portfolios
AUR in well-known investors’ portfolios
4 of 37 funds reported AUR shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Capital Partners | 0.72% | $74.3M | +632.8% | Q2 2026 |
| Cathie WoodARK Investment Management | 0.27% | $41.8M | −4.9% | Q2 2026 |
| Dan LoebThird Point | 0.15% | $7.0M | No change | Q2 2026 |
| Stanley DruckenmillerDuquesne Family Office | 0.08% | $4.3M | New | Q2 2026 |