Atlantic Union Bankshares
AUBNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $39.86 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $39.39–$39.88 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 740.6K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $30.87–$43.62 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own AUB if Atlantic Union's 2025 jump in assets, revenue and cash flow reflects an enlarged regional commercial banking franchise; the investment case rests on management converting that scale into durable net interest income and EPS recovery.
AUB price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
The jump in assets in 2025 represents durable balance-sheet scale (loans/earning assets and deposits) that will drive recurring revenue growth if earning-asset mix and funding costs remain favorable.StrengtheningMateriality: High
assets increased to 37,585,754,000 (period_end 2025-12-31) from 24,585,323,000 (period_end 2024-12-31). If assets are sustainably larger and deployed into higher-yield loans, revenue and net interest income should remain elevated; if the asset expansion is transient or funded at higher cost, revenue will fall and margins compress.
Watch: Sustained deposit outflows or migration of deposits to higher-yield alternatives (money market funds or larger national banks) that force Atlantic Union to pay up for funding.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
assets increased to 37,585,754,000 (period_end 2025-12-31) from 24,585,323,000 (period_end 2024-12-31).
Open source ↗The rise in GAAP net income and huge operating cash flow in 2025 reflects genuine improvement in core earnings (NII and fee income) rather than one-time accounting or market-driven gains; if true, earnings power is higher going forward.HoldingMateriality: High
net_income increased to 273,715,000 in FY2025 from 209,131,000 in FY2024. If 2025 results are recurring, per-share earnings can expand; if they were driven by one-off items (securities gains, tax items, timing of cash flows), future EPS could fall as these items normalize.
Watch: Large one-time gains (e.g., securities sales, bargain purchase accounting from an acquisition) or timing items that inflate operating cash flow but don't repeat.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
net_income increased to 273,715,000 in FY2025 from 209,131,000 in FY2024.
Open source ↗The decline in diluted EPS despite higher net income indicates share dilution (or other per-share headwinds); restoring shareholder returns requires management to avoid further dilutive equity issuance or to offset it with buybacks or stronger per-share profitability.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
eps_diluted declined to 2.03 in FY2025 from 2.24 in FY2024 and 2.53 in FY2023, even though net income rose in 2025. EPS per share determines shareholder returns more directly than aggregate earnings; persistent dilution or failure to grow EPS leaves shareholders worse off despite higher headline net income.
Watch: Continued equity-funded acquisitions or share issuance for employee compensation that increase share count without immediate EPS accretion.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
eps_diluted declined to 2.03 in FY2025 from 2.24 in FY2024 and 2.53 in FY2023, even though net income rose in.
Open source ↗The large operating cash flow reported in 2025 provides a liquidity cushion to fund loan growth, deposit commitments or capital needs in the near term; if it is repeatable, it reduces reliance on expensive wholesale funding.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities rose to 2,237,380,000 in FY2025 versus 308,456,000 in FY2024. Positive, recurring operating cash flow lowers funding risk and supports organic growth or shareholder returns without dilutive capital raises.
Watch: If the 2025 operating cash flow spike is timing-related (deposit sweeps, loan securitization proceeds, or one-time cash inflows), it will not recur and funding pressure could return.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities rose to 2,237,380,000 in FY2025 versus 308,456,000 in FY2024.
Open source ↗Sustained revenue above pre-2025 levels requires Atlantic Union to preserve net interest margin and keep credit costs (provision expense and loan losses) under control as loans scale; without that, revenue can rise while earnings per share and returns fall.HoldingMateriality: Medium
revenue rose sharply to 1,374,349,000 in FY2025 from 817,417,000 in FY2024 and ~702-703M in prior years, showing top-line conversion from a larger balance sheet. Revenue alone can mask margin compression or rising credit costs; durable shareholder value needs margin and credit stability as the balance sheet grows.
Watch: Competition for deposits driving up funding costs and compressing NIM (regional banks raising rates aggressively).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
revenue rose sharply to 1,374,349,000 in FY2025 from 817,417,000 in FY2024 and ~702-703M in prior years, showing top-line conversion from.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
The jump in assets in 2025 represents durable balance-sheet scale (loans/earning assets and deposits) that will drive recurring revenue growth if earning-asset mix and funding costs remain favorable. If assets are sustainably larger and deployed into higher-yield loans, revenue and net interest income should remain elevated; if the asset expansion is transient or funded at higher cost, revenue will fall and margins compress.
The rise in GAAP net income and huge operating cash flow in 2025 reflects genuine improvement in core earnings (NII and fee income) rather than one-time accounting or market-driven gains; if true, earnings power is higher going forward. If 2025 results are recurring, per-share earnings can expand; if they were driven by one-off items (securities gains, tax items, timing of cash flows), future EPS could fall as these items normalize.
The decline in diluted EPS despite higher net income indicates share dilution (or other per-share headwinds); restoring shareholder returns requires management to avoid further dilutive equity issuance or to offset it with buybacks or stronger per-share profitability. EPS per share determines shareholder returns more directly than aggregate earnings; persistent dilution or failure to grow EPS leaves shareholders worse off despite higher headline net income.
The large operating cash flow reported in 2025 provides a liquidity cushion to fund loan growth, deposit commitments or capital needs in the near term; if it is repeatable, it reduces reliance on expensive wholesale funding. Positive, recurring operating cash flow lowers funding risk and supports organic growth or shareholder returns without dilutive capital raises.
Sustained revenue above pre-2025 levels requires Atlantic Union to preserve net interest margin and keep credit costs (provision expense and loan losses) under control as loans scale; without that, revenue can rise while earnings per share and returns fall. Revenue alone can mask margin compression or rising credit costs; durable shareholder value needs margin and credit stability as the balance sheet grows.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Atlantic Union's 2025 jump in assets, revenue and cash flow reflects an enlarged regional commercial banking franchise; the investment case rests on management converting that scale into durable net interest income and EPS recovery.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Atlantic Union Bankshares
Where the evidence on Atlantic Union Bankshares stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 19, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
The jump in assets in 2025 represents durable balance-sheet scale (loans/earning assets and deposits) that will drive recurring revenue growth if earning-asset mix and funding costs remain favorable.
The rise in GAAP net income and huge operating cash flow in 2025 reflects genuine improvement in core earnings (NII and fee income) rather than one-time accounting or market-driven gains; if true, earnings power is higher going forward.
The decline in diluted EPS despite higher net income indicates share dilution (or other per-share headwinds); restoring shareholder returns requires management to avoid further dilutive equity issuance or to offset it with buybacks or stronger per-share profitability.
The large operating cash flow reported in 2025 provides a liquidity cushion to fund loan growth, deposit commitments or capital needs in the near term; if it is repeatable, it reduces reliance on expensive wholesale funding.
Sustained revenue above pre-2025 levels requires Atlantic Union to preserve net interest margin and keep credit costs (provision expense and loan losses) under control as loans scale; without that, revenue can rise while earnings per share and returns fall.
Bear case: what would count against it
Sustained deposit outflows or migration of deposits to higher-yield alternatives (money market funds or larger national banks) that force Atlantic Union to pay up for funding.
Large one-time gains (e.g., securities sales, bargain purchase accounting from an acquisition) or timing items that inflate operating cash flow but don't repeat.
Continued equity-funded acquisitions or share issuance for employee compensation that increase share count without immediate EPS accretion.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Atlantic Union Bankshares
Loading the break-condition record for Atlantic Union Bankshares.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedOther material event.
Atlantic Union Bankshares filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-29: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
Atlantic Union Bankshares filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-06: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
Atlantic Union Bankshares filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-30: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Sustained deposit outflows or migration of deposits to higher-yield alternatives (money market funds or larger national banks) that force Atlantic Union to pay up for funding.
- Large one-time gains (e.g., securities sales, bargain purchase accounting from an acquisition) or timing items that inflate operating cash flow but don't repeat.
- Continued equity-funded acquisitions or share issuance for employee compensation that increase share count without immediate EPS accretion.
- If the 2025 operating cash flow spike is timing-related (deposit sweeps, loan securitization proceeds, or one-time cash inflows), it will not recur and funding pressure could return.
- Competition for deposits driving up funding costs and compressing NIM (regional banks raising rates aggressively).
AUB news
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Financial statements
AUB income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
AUB: quick answers
- Have members of Congress traded AUB?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 1 trade in AUB by 1 filer: 0 purchases and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed AUB trade