ATI
ATINYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $182.72 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $180.18–$188.71 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 970.2K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 2 projected Projected for 2027-02-02 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $93.11–$243.57 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own ATI if its aerospace- and defense-oriented specialty materials franchise keeps behaving like a scarce, qualified supplier rather than a commodity metals producer.
ATI price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
ATI’s hard-to-qualify specialty materials position should keep aerospace and defense demand converting into profitable sales rather than forcing the company to compete primarily on commodity metal price.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue increased from $3.836 billion in FY2022 to $4.587 billion in FY2025. If customer qualifications and mission-critical applications remain the demand driver, ATI can compound revenue with better mix; if customers treat supply as interchangeable, growth becomes lower-quality and more cyclical.
Watch: Airframe or engine OEMs reduce build-rate expectations, delaying demand for titanium, nickel-alloy and forged specialty materials.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue increased from $3.836 billion in FY2022 to $4.587 billion in FY2025.
Open source ↗ATI’s product mix and customer qualification barriers should preserve pricing power, allowing specialty-materials demand to show up as higher gross profit rather than merely higher pass-through sales.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual gross profit increased from $714.2 million in FY2022 to $1.007 billion in FY2025. Gross profit durability is the clearest sign that ATI is being paid for capability and reliability, not just for metal input costs.
Watch: Titanium, nickel or energy cost volatility overwhelms contract pass-through mechanisms and compresses spread margins.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual gross profit increased from $714.2 million in FY2022 to $1.007 billion in FY2025.
Open source ↗ATI’s manufacturing footprint and operating execution should let higher-value mix flow through to operating income instead of being consumed by labor, energy, quality or capacity costs.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating income increased from $287.3 million in FY2022 to $640.9 million in FY2025. The equity upside depends on ATI proving that margin expansion is structural operating leverage, not a temporary spread between selling prices and input costs.
Watch: Labor disruption, skilled-labor shortages or wage inflation prevent ATI from running critical facilities efficiently.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating income increased from $287.3 million in FY2022 to $640.9 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗ATI’s operating model must convert specialty-materials earnings into cash despite working-capital intensity, long production cycles and metal inventory requirements.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow increased from $85.9 million in FY2023 to $407.2 million in FY2024 and $614.3 million in FY2025. Cash conversion determines whether growth can fund reinvestment, balance-sheet improvement and per-share value instead of being trapped in inventory and receivables.
Watch: Rising aerospace production schedules require ATI to build inventory ahead of shipments, absorbing cash even if reported earnings remain strong.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow increased from $85.9 million in FY2023 to $407.2 million in FY2024 and $614.3 million in.
Open source ↗ATI’s balance-sheet discipline should give management room to invest through aerospace and metals cycles without being forced into distressed financing or value-destructive dilution.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP liabilities declined from $3.505 billion at FY2023 year-end to $3.183 billion at FY2025 year-end. A specialty-materials upcycle is worth more to shareholders if the company can reinvest and withstand downturns without handing value to creditors or new equity holders.
Watch: Management funds aggressive capacity expansion or acquisitions with new debt before demand is secured.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP liabilities declined from $3.505 billion at FY2023 year-end to $3.183 billion at FY2025 year-end.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
ATI’s hard-to-qualify specialty materials position should keep aerospace and defense demand converting into profitable sales rather than forcing the company to compete primarily on commodity metal price. If customer qualifications and mission-critical applications remain the demand driver, ATI can compound revenue with better mix; if customers treat supply as interchangeable, growth becomes lower-quality and more cyclical.
ATI’s product mix and customer qualification barriers should preserve pricing power, allowing specialty-materials demand to show up as higher gross profit rather than merely higher pass-through sales. Gross profit durability is the clearest sign that ATI is being paid for capability and reliability, not just for metal input costs.
ATI’s manufacturing footprint and operating execution should let higher-value mix flow through to operating income instead of being consumed by labor, energy, quality or capacity costs. The equity upside depends on ATI proving that margin expansion is structural operating leverage, not a temporary spread between selling prices and input costs.
ATI’s operating model must convert specialty-materials earnings into cash despite working-capital intensity, long production cycles and metal inventory requirements. Cash conversion determines whether growth can fund reinvestment, balance-sheet improvement and per-share value instead of being trapped in inventory and receivables.
ATI’s balance-sheet discipline should give management room to invest through aerospace and metals cycles without being forced into distressed financing or value-destructive dilution. A specialty-materials upcycle is worth more to shareholders if the company can reinvest and withstand downturns without handing value to creditors or new equity holders.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
its aerospace- and defense-oriented specialty materials franchise keeps behaving like a scarce, qualified supplier rather than a commodity metals producer.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for ATI
Where the evidence on ATI stands: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Oct 16, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 5 strengthening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
ATI’s hard-to-qualify specialty materials position should keep aerospace and defense demand converting into profitable sales rather than forcing the company to compete primarily on commodity metal price.
ATI’s product mix and customer qualification barriers should preserve pricing power, allowing specialty-materials demand to show up as higher gross profit rather than merely higher pass-through sales.
ATI’s manufacturing footprint and operating execution should let higher-value mix flow through to operating income instead of being consumed by labor, energy, quality or capacity costs.
ATI’s operating model must convert specialty-materials earnings into cash despite working-capital intensity, long production cycles and metal inventory requirements.
ATI’s balance-sheet discipline should give management room to invest through aerospace and metals cycles without being forced into distressed financing or value-destructive dilution.
Bear case: what would count against it
Airframe or engine OEMs reduce build-rate expectations, delaying demand for titanium, nickel-alloy and forged specialty materials.
Titanium, nickel or energy cost volatility overwhelms contract pass-through mechanisms and compresses spread margins.
Labor disruption, skilled-labor shortages or wage inflation prevent ATI from running critical facilities efficiently.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · ATI
No break has crossed ATI’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
ATI filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-06: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
ATI filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-08: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
ATI filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-03: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Airframe or engine OEMs reduce build-rate expectations, delaying demand for titanium, nickel-alloy and forged specialty materials.
- Titanium, nickel or energy cost volatility overwhelms contract pass-through mechanisms and compresses spread margins.
- Labor disruption, skilled-labor shortages or wage inflation prevent ATI from running critical facilities efficiently.
- Rising aerospace production schedules require ATI to build inventory ahead of shipments, absorbing cash even if reported earnings remain strong.
- Management funds aggressive capacity expansion or acquisitions with new debt before demand is secured.
ATI news
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Financial statements
ATI income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
ATI: quick answers
- When does ATI (ATI) report earnings next?
- ATI's next results are projected for February 2, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is ATI's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 4.5M ATI shares were sold short, 3.28% of its shares outstanding, down 5.8% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.2 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. ATI short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded ATI?
- 1 trade in ATI has been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed ATI trade
- Which well-known investors own ATI?
- 4 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported ATI shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Viking Global Investors (Andreas Halvorsen), 0.7%; Soros Fund Management (George Soros), 0.2%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.1%. Fund portfolios
ATI in well-known investors’ portfolios
4 of 37 funds reported ATI shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andreas HalvorsenViking Global Investors | 0.65% | $227M | −65.4% | Q2 2026 |
| George SorosSoros Fund Management | 0.18% | $14.5M | +38.8% | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.09% | $22.7M | +423.6% | Q2 2026 |
| Cathie WoodARK Investment Management | 0.00% | $96K | −28.3% | Q2 2026 |