Arcutis Biotherapeutics

ARQTNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$28.38
+$0.99 (+3.63%)Today 1M +3.03%
After hours$28.380.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$27.39
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$27.20–$28.65
Regular-session low and high so far today.
2.5M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 24 projected
Projected for 2027-02-24 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$19.30–$34.80
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own ARQT if Arcutis is a high-upside but execution-sensitive bet that ZORYVE becomes a durable, multi-indication dermatology franchise rather than a short-lived launch curve.

ARQT price history

Latest price$28.38Today+$0.99 (+3.63%)
ARQT +7.62%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Dermatologists and pediatric prescribers continue choosing ZORYVE because its once-daily, steroid-free profile and broad labels address chronic-use limitations of older topical therapies.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Annual GAAP revenue rose from $196.5 million in FY2024 to $376.1 million in FY2025. If this holds, ZORYVE can remain a fast-growing franchise; if it breaks, Arcutis is a single-platform company with a much smaller revenue ceiling.

    Watch: Large PBMs impose step edits or exclusions that force patients through generic topical steroids before ZORYVE.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Annual GAAP revenue rose from $196.5 million in FY2024 to $376.1 million in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Arcutis can add indications, ages, and formulations to the same roflumilast platform without rebuilding its cost base, so incremental ZORYVE revenue should increasingly fall through to operating income.HoldingMateriality: High

    Annual GAAP operating loss improved from $128.4 million in FY2024 to $12.2 million in FY2025 while multiple ZORYVE launches and approvals continued. This determines whether Arcutis becomes a profitable specialty pharma company or remains a promotion-heavy biotech.

    Watch: The January 2026 termination of the Kowa agreement leaves primary care and pediatric promotion undercovered or forces Arcutis to rebuild that reach internally.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Annual GAAP operating loss improved from $128.4 million in FY2024 to $12.2 million in FY2025 while multiple ZORYVE launches and.

    Open source ↗
  • ZORYVE's differentiation versus older topical options supports enough net pricing power to keep gross margins high even as access broadens.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Derived annual gross profit was $339.4 million on $376.1 million of FY2025 revenue, implying about a 90% gross margin. High gross margin is what allows revenue growth to translate into cash rather than being consumed by rebates and manufacturing costs.

    Watch: PBMs or insurers demand materially higher rebates to maintain access as utilization grows.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Derived annual gross profit was $339.4 million on $376.1 million of FY2025 revenue, implying about a 90% gross margin.

    Open source ↗
  • Commercial scale is close enough to cash breakeven that Arcutis can fund ongoing launches and pipeline work without severe financing pressure, provided ZORYVE momentum persists.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Annual GAAP operating cash flow improved from negative $247.1 million in FY2023 to negative $112.2 million in FY2024 and negative $5.6 million in FY2025. If true, future upside accrues to current shareholders; if false, dilution or debt could absorb much of the business progress.

    Watch: After Kowa's termination, Arcutis has to materially increase its own sales force or patient support spending to maintain pediatric and primary-care reach.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Annual GAAP operating cash flow improved from negative $247.1 million in FY2023 to negative $112.2 million in FY2024 and negative.

    Open source ↗
  • Canada launches and Huadong/Sato licenses can extend ZORYVE's economics outside the United States without Arcutis bearing the full cost of direct commercialization.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Item 1 describes the first commercial launch outside the United States after Health Canada approval of ZORYVE cream 0.3% in June 2023. International contribution can add upside and diversify the franchise, but only if partners secure approvals, access, and commercial focus.

    Watch: Huadong or Sato deprioritizes topical roflumilast relative to larger internal dermatology products.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Item 1 describes the first commercial launch outside the United States after Health Canada approval of ZORYVE cream 0.3% in.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

Dermatologists and pediatric prescribers continue choosing ZORYVE because its once-daily, steroid-free profile and broad labels address chronic-use limitations of older topical therapies. If this holds, ZORYVE can remain a fast-growing franchise; if it breaks, Arcutis is a single-platform company with a much smaller revenue ceiling.

Arcutis can add indications, ages, and formulations to the same roflumilast platform without rebuilding its cost base, so incremental ZORYVE revenue should increasingly fall through to operating income. This determines whether Arcutis becomes a profitable specialty pharma company or remains a promotion-heavy biotech.

ZORYVE's differentiation versus older topical options supports enough net pricing power to keep gross margins high even as access broadens. High gross margin is what allows revenue growth to translate into cash rather than being consumed by rebates and manufacturing costs.

Commercial scale is close enough to cash breakeven that Arcutis can fund ongoing launches and pipeline work without severe financing pressure, provided ZORYVE momentum persists. If true, future upside accrues to current shareholders; if false, dilution or debt could absorb much of the business progress.

Canada launches and Huadong/Sato licenses can extend ZORYVE's economics outside the United States without Arcutis bearing the full cost of direct commercialization. International contribution can add upside and diversify the franchise, but only if partners secure approvals, access, and commercial focus.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Arcutis is a high-upside but execution-sensitive bet that ZORYVE becomes a durable, multi-indication dermatology franchise rather than a short-lived launch curve.

Evidence assessed Oct 15, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Arcutis Biotherapeutics

Where the evidence on Arcutis Biotherapeutics stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 3 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Dermatologists and pediatric prescribers continue choosing ZORYVE because its once-daily, steroid-free profile and broad labels address chronic-use limitations of older topical therapies.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Arcutis can add indications, ages, and formulations to the same roflumilast platform without rebuilding its cost base, so incremental ZORYVE revenue should increasingly fall through to operating income.

    sec.gov ↗

  • ZORYVE's differentiation versus older topical options supports enough net pricing power to keep gross margins high even as access broadens.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Commercial scale is close enough to cash breakeven that Arcutis can fund ongoing launches and pipeline work without severe financing pressure, provided ZORYVE momentum persists.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Canada launches and Huadong/Sato licenses can extend ZORYVE's economics outside the United States without Arcutis bearing the full cost of direct commercialization.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Large PBMs impose step edits or exclusions that force patients through generic topical steroids before ZORYVE.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The January 2026 termination of the Kowa agreement leaves primary care and pediatric promotion undercovered or forces Arcutis to rebuild that reach internally.

    sec.gov ↗

  • PBMs or insurers demand materially higher rebates to maintain access as utilization grows.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Arcutis Biotherapeutics

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

Loading the break-condition record for Arcutis Biotherapeutics.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Arcutis Biotherapeutics filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-05: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Arcutis Biotherapeutics filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-16: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Other material event.

    Arcutis Biotherapeutics filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-09: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Large PBMs impose step edits or exclusions that force patients through generic topical steroids before ZORYVE.
  • The January 2026 termination of the Kowa agreement leaves primary care and pediatric promotion undercovered or forces Arcutis to rebuild that reach internally.
  • PBMs or insurers demand materially higher rebates to maintain access as utilization grows.
  • After Kowa's termination, Arcutis has to materially increase its own sales force or patient support spending to maintain pediatric and primary-care reach.
  • Huadong or Sato deprioritizes topical roflumilast relative to larger internal dermatology products.

ARQT news

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Financial statements

ARQT income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

ARQT: quick answers

When does Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) report earnings next?
Arcutis Biotherapeutics's next results are projected for February 24, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 4, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is ARQT's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 18.2M ARQT shares were sold short, 14.4% of its shares outstanding, down 11.4% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 7.6 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. ARQT short interest history
Have members of Congress traded ARQT?
6 trades in ARQT have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed ARQT trade
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