Arrow Financial

AROWNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$38.62
−$0.06 (−0.16%)Today 1M +6.16%
After hours$38.620.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$38.68
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$38.33–$38.87
Regular-session low and high so far today.
66.8K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Jan 28 projected
Projected for 2027-01-28 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$28.92–$42.70
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own AROW if Arrow Financial is a relationship-driven community-bank recovery story: durable value comes from sticky local funding, disciplined credit, and normalized spread economics, not from rapid balance-sheet growth alone.

AROW price history

Latest price$38.62Today−$0.06 (-0.16%)
AROW +4.62%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Arrow’s local relationship-banking franchise continues to attract and retain enough customer funding and loan demand to grow earning assets without losing relevance to larger banks, credit unions, or online deposit platforms.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP total assets increased from $3.69 billion at FY2020 year-end to $4.45 billion at FY2025 year-end. If the local franchise holds, Arrow can keep compounding a larger balance sheet; if it weakens, growth either slows or becomes more expensive and less profitable.

    Watch: Large national banks or regional competitors win primary banking relationships in Arrow’s local markets through better digital products or promotional deposit pricing.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP total assets increased from $3.69 billion at FY2020 year-end to $4.45 billion at FY2025 year-end.

    Open source ↗
  • Arrow’s asset-liability management can translate the post-rate-shock environment into recovering spread earnings without taking excessive credit or duration risk.HoldingMateriality: High

    GAAP annual net income recovered to $43.953 million in FY2025 from $29.709 million in FY2024. This determines whether the bank’s larger asset base actually produces higher owner earnings rather than just more balance-sheet size.

    Watch: Deposit betas rise because customers demand higher rates or move funds to high-yield alternatives, preventing net interest margin recovery.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual net income recovered to $43.953 million in FY2025 from $29.709 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Arrow’s underwriting and capital discipline keep balance-sheet growth self-funded, so book capital grows rather than being depleted by credit losses, securities marks, or dilutive capital raises.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP stockholders’ equity increased to $431.852 million at FY2025 year-end from $400.901 million at FY2024 year-end. For a bank, durable per-share value depends on protecting capital; asset growth that consumes equity would weaken the owner’s claim.

    Watch: Commercial real estate, residential mortgage, or consumer credit losses in Arrow’s markets force elevated provisions and charge-offs.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP stockholders’ equity increased to $431.852 million at FY2025 year-end from $400.901 million at FY2024 year-end.

    Open source ↗
  • Arrow’s funding base and liquidity management remain strong enough to avoid forced asset sales or expensive emergency funding during deposit stress.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and restricted cash equivalents increased to $214.183 million at FY2025 year-end from $154.546 million at FY2024 year-end. Liquidity resilience protects both solvency perception and earnings power; a funding squeeze can damage a bank before credit losses appear.

    Watch: Uninsured or rate-sensitive depositors leave after renewed regional-bank stress.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and restricted cash equivalents increased to $214.183 million at FY2025 year-end from $154.546 million.

    Open source ↗
  • Per-share value improves only if earnings recovery comes from better spread and fee economics rather than from leverage, temporary rate effects, or share-count distortion.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP diluted EPS improved to $2.65 in FY2025 from $1.77 in FY2024. Owners are paid per share, so headline bank profitability is less valuable if it does not translate into durable diluted EPS.

    Watch: Deposit pricing competition prevents spread recovery from flowing through to diluted EPS.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP diluted EPS improved to $2.65 in FY2025 from $1.77 in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Arrow’s local relationship-banking franchise continues to attract and retain enough customer funding and loan demand to grow earning assets without losing relevance to larger banks, credit unions, or online deposit platforms. If the local franchise holds, Arrow can keep compounding a larger balance sheet; if it weakens, growth either slows or becomes more expensive and less profitable.

Arrow’s asset-liability management can translate the post-rate-shock environment into recovering spread earnings without taking excessive credit or duration risk. This determines whether the bank’s larger asset base actually produces higher owner earnings rather than just more balance-sheet size.

Arrow’s underwriting and capital discipline keep balance-sheet growth self-funded, so book capital grows rather than being depleted by credit losses, securities marks, or dilutive capital raises. For a bank, durable per-share value depends on protecting capital; asset growth that consumes equity would weaken the owner’s claim.

Arrow’s funding base and liquidity management remain strong enough to avoid forced asset sales or expensive emergency funding during deposit stress. Liquidity resilience protects both solvency perception and earnings power; a funding squeeze can damage a bank before credit losses appear.

Per-share value improves only if earnings recovery comes from better spread and fee economics rather than from leverage, temporary rate effects, or share-count distortion. Owners are paid per share, so headline bank profitability is less valuable if it does not translate into durable diluted EPS.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Arrow Financial is a relationship-driven community-bank recovery story: durable value comes from sticky local funding, disciplined credit, and normalized spread economics, not from rapid balance-sheet growth alone.

Evidence assessed Oct 15, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Arrow Financial

Where the evidence on Arrow Financial stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Arrow’s local relationship-banking franchise continues to attract and retain enough customer funding and loan demand to grow earning assets without losing relevance to larger banks, credit unions, or online deposit platforms.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Arrow’s asset-liability management can translate the post-rate-shock environment into recovering spread earnings without taking excessive credit or duration risk.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Arrow’s underwriting and capital discipline keep balance-sheet growth self-funded, so book capital grows rather than being depleted by credit losses, securities marks, or dilutive capital raises.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Arrow’s funding base and liquidity management remain strong enough to avoid forced asset sales or expensive emergency funding during deposit stress.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Per-share value improves only if earnings recovery comes from better spread and fee economics rather than from leverage, temporary rate effects, or share-count distortion.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Large national banks or regional competitors win primary banking relationships in Arrow’s local markets through better digital products or promotional deposit pricing.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Deposit betas rise because customers demand higher rates or move funds to high-yield alternatives, preventing net interest margin recovery.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Commercial real estate, residential mortgage, or consumer credit losses in Arrow’s markets force elevated provisions and charge-offs.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Arrow Financial

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed Arrow Financial’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Other material event.

    Arrow Financial filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-10: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Arrow Financial filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-23: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Completed an acquisition or disposition of assets.

    Arrow Financial filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-01: Completed an acquisition or disposition of assets. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Large national banks or regional competitors win primary banking relationships in Arrow’s local markets through better digital products or promotional deposit pricing.
  • Deposit betas rise because customers demand higher rates or move funds to high-yield alternatives, preventing net interest margin recovery.
  • Commercial real estate, residential mortgage, or consumer credit losses in Arrow’s markets force elevated provisions and charge-offs.
  • Uninsured or rate-sensitive depositors leave after renewed regional-bank stress.
  • Deposit pricing competition prevents spread recovery from flowing through to diluted EPS.

AROW news

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Financial statements

AROW income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

AROW: quick answers

When does Arrow Financial (AROW) report earnings next?
Arrow Financial's next results are projected for January 28, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is AROW's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 591,655 AROW shares were sold short, 3.19% of its shares outstanding, down 6.6% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 8.7 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. AROW short interest history
Have members of Congress traded AROW?
1 trade in AROW has been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed AROW trade
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