AppLovin
APPNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $404.77 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $393.06–$408.99 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 3.1M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 12, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 10 projected Projected for 2027-02-10 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $225.19–$738.01 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
- Advertisers buy performance campaigns, and AppLovin earns when its artificial-intelligence ad tools help them reach users at acceptable return-on-advertising-spend targets.↗
- The economic engine is model efficiency: better matching lets advertisers spend more at profitable payback, turning campaign performance into high-margin advertising revenue.↗↗
Why this business is different
- Axon, its artificial-intelligence advertising engine, improves through self-learning and engineering work; small targeting gains can unlock larger advertiser budgets.↗↗
- The main structural weakness is dependence on mobile app advertising and platform rules; regulatory or app-store changes could reduce targeting quality or raise compliance costs.↗
What could matter next
- The key test is whether net revenue per installation keeps rising while installation volume weakens; that separates durable model gains from a temporary monetization spike.↗
- After selling mobile gaming, AppLovin is a cleaner advertising platform; future value depends on using that focus to sustain growth and cash-funded repurchases.↗↗
Why the Stock Moved
- November 2023 · Axon proof point: Expectations shifted from a two-segment recovery toward an artificial-intelligence advertising engine. Q3 outperformance was driven primarily by Axon 2.0. That raised confidence in advertising revenue and margin durability.↗
- November 2024 · Scaling leverage: Expectations shifted from initial Axon proof to larger-scale operating leverage. Q3 2024 letter said partners could spend at greater scale as models improved. That increased potential future earnings from the software platform.↗
- July 2025 · Apps exit: The announced Apps exit left a more focused advertising company. The July 1 announcement confirmed a June 30 closing for cash and Tripledot equity. That reduced strategic complexity and centered capital on advertising.↗
The core investment thesis
Own APP if advertisers keep earning enough measurable returns to shift budgets onto its Axon advertising engine, while AppLovin preserves high margins and avoids platform or privacy restrictions.
APP price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Advertisers must keep earning measurable campaign returns that justify shifting or maintaining performance budgets on AppLovin’s advertising tools.HoldingMateriality: High
AppLovin says it generates revenue when advertisers achieve return-on-ad-spend targets, and Q3 2024 improvements let partners spend at greater scale. Revenue depends on advertisers seeing acceptable payback; if campaign returns weaken, budgets can shift quickly to other advertising platforms.
Watch: Watch for falling net revenue per installation, weaker guidance, or company language that advertisers are reducing spend because campaign returns deteriorated.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
AppLovin links advertiser retention and spending to campaign payback.
Open source ↗Management attributed greater advertiser spending capacity to improved Axon models.
Open source ↗Axon must keep improving monetization per installation faster than any decline in installation volume reduces available ad opportunities.HoldingMateriality: High
Q2 revenue rose 53% year over year as net revenue per installation increased 58%, offset partly by 2% fewer installations. Axon is the economic engine; higher revenue per installation can lift revenue without equivalent cost growth, but falling installs test that mechanism.
Watch: Watch whether future filings show net revenue per installation decelerating or installation volume declines overwhelming pricing and matching gains.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Q2 monetization per install rose 58%; install count fell 2%.
Open source ↗AppLovin must continue converting advertising revenue into free cash flow after publisher payments, infrastructure costs, taxes, and ongoing model investment.HoldingMateriality: High
Q2 operating cash flow was $869 million and free cash flow $863 million, below $1.267 billion net income. Publisher payments, operating spending and cash taxes affect conversion. Very high margins are central because the same advertising platform can turn added spend into cash if publisher and operating costs stay controlled.
Watch: Watch for publisher payments, operational spending, cash taxes, or infrastructure costs rising faster than revenue for more than a short investment period.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Q2 operating cash generation was $869 million; company-defined free cash flow was $863 million.
Open source ↗Cash collections are offset by publisher payments, operating costs and taxes.
Open source ↗The business must withstand privacy, platform, and regulatory changes across its mobile-ad ecosystem without materially weakening targeting, measurement, or advertiser payback.UnclearMateriality: High
The 2025 10-K warns that evolving laws and enforcement may require changes to AppLovin’s advertising solutions or business practices. Privacy, platform, competition, and data-use rules could reduce targeting effectiveness or increase compliance costs, directly affecting advertiser returns.
Watch: Watch for new disclosures that laws, app-store policies, or partner restrictions require changes to targeting, measurement, or data-processing practices.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Privacy and platform changes may impair data use or increase compliance costs.
Open source ↗The Apps divestiture must keep management and capital focused on advertising without creating disruption from removing the owned game studios.HoldingMateriality: Medium
The Apps sale closed June 30, 2025 for $400 million cash, subject to adjustments, and approximately 20% of Tripledot’s diluted equity. The Apps sale simplified the company, but it also removed owned gaming assets that once helped define AppLovin’s ecosystem exposure.
Watch: Watch whether advertising growth slows after the divestiture or transition obligations reduce cash generation.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
The June 30 divestiture exchanged gaming studios for cash and a minority Tripledot stake.
Open source ↗Buybacks must stay funded by reported free cash flow while leaving enough capacity to invest in model quality and platform resilience.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Q1 and Q2 2026 releases reported substantial free cash flow while the company continued share repurchases and withholdings. Repurchases can increase per-share value only if funded by durable cash generation rather than weakening investment capacity or balance-sheet flexibility.
Watch: Watch for repurchases continuing while free cash flow weakens or debt service, taxes, or infrastructure spending absorb more cash.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Q1 cash generation supported repurchases and employee-share tax withholding.
Open source ↗Q2 reported $551 million of combined repurchase and withholding costs.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Advertisers must keep earning measurable campaign returns that justify shifting or maintaining performance budgets on AppLovin’s advertising tools. Revenue depends on advertisers seeing acceptable payback; if campaign returns weaken, budgets can shift quickly to other advertising platforms.
Axon must keep improving monetization per installation faster than any decline in installation volume reduces available ad opportunities. Axon is the economic engine; higher revenue per installation can lift revenue without equivalent cost growth, but falling installs test that mechanism.
AppLovin must continue converting advertising revenue into free cash flow after publisher payments, infrastructure costs, taxes, and ongoing model investment. Very high margins are central because the same advertising platform can turn added spend into cash if publisher and operating costs stay controlled.
The business must withstand privacy, platform, and regulatory changes across its mobile-ad ecosystem without materially weakening targeting, measurement, or advertiser payback. Privacy, platform, competition, and data-use rules could reduce targeting effectiveness or increase compliance costs, directly affecting advertiser returns.
The Apps divestiture must keep management and capital focused on advertising without creating disruption from removing the owned game studios. The Apps sale simplified the company, but it also removed owned gaming assets that once helped define AppLovin’s ecosystem exposure.
Buybacks must stay funded by reported free cash flow while leaving enough capacity to invest in model quality and platform resilience. Repurchases can increase per-share value only if funded by durable cash generation rather than weakening investment capacity or balance-sheet flexibility.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
advertisers keep earning enough measurable returns to shift budgets onto its Axon advertising engine, while AppLovin preserves high margins and avoids platform or privacy restrictions.
Since this case
What has happened since Sep 29, 2026
The case above was written from evidence through Sep 29, 2026 and stays as written. This part is read from SEC filings and closing prices each time the page is built, so it moves as new reports are filed.
- Results
- Q3 2026, the quarter to Sep 30, 2026, reported Nov 4, 2026 (8-K ↗): revenue $2.18B, up 55.5% on the same quarter a year earlier; net income $1.44B. Over the 12 months to Sep 30, 2026: revenue $7.61B, net income $5.01B (65.9% of revenue).
- Share price
- No closing price is on file for the period since this case.
- Filings
- 1 8-K filing since Sep 29, 2026:
- Insiders
- 7 Form 4 transactions since Sep 29, 2026, none of them an open-market purchase or sale of its common stock.
- Conditions
- None of the conditions the Thesis-Break Engine checks has crossed on AppLovin since Sep 29, 2026.
Read from SEC filings and closing prices through Nov 12, 2026. A filing made today can take up to about four hours to appear here.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for AppLovin Corporation
Where the evidence on AppLovin disagrees: Holding on the latest evidence (Sep 29, 2026). Of its 6 thesis points, 5 holding and 1 unclear.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Advertisers must keep earning measurable campaign returns that justify shifting or maintaining performance budgets on AppLovin’s advertising tools.
Axon must keep improving monetization per installation faster than any decline in installation volume reduces available ad opportunities.
AppLovin must continue converting advertising revenue into free cash flow after publisher payments, infrastructure costs, taxes, and ongoing model investment.
The Apps divestiture must keep management and capital focused on advertising without creating disruption from removing the owned game studios.
Buybacks must stay funded by reported free cash flow while leaving enough capacity to invest in model quality and platform resilience.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
The business must withstand privacy, platform, and regulatory changes across its mobile-ad ecosystem without materially weakening targeting, measurement, or advertiser payback.
Company research
Research on AppLovin
- Reporting · Why Is AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP) Stock Down 54% This Year?
Revenue and cash kept growing, but a rare miss turned the test toward whether AXON can keep outrunning larger ad platforms.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · AppLovin
No break has crossed AppLovin’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedQ2 2026 results kept high-margin growth visible
Q2 revenue grew 53%, while continuing-operations net income rose 64% to $1.267 billion. Q3 revenue guidance of $2.055–$2.085 billion implies growth from Q2; its 83% adjusted EBITDA margin is a forecast, not GAAP profitability.
- MixedMonetization rose while install volume fell
Q2 revenue per installation rose 58% while installations declined 2%. Growth therefore depended on monetization, not rising install volume; broader e-commerce adoption remains an execution risk.
- MixedQ1 2026 cash generation supported capital returns
Q1 operating and free cash flow each rounded to $1.3 billion. Q2 free cash flow was lower at $863 million, below net income, so durable cash conversion matters more than one strong quarter.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Watch for falling net revenue per installation, weaker guidance, or company language that advertisers are reducing spend because campaign returns deteriorated.
- Watch whether future filings show net revenue per installation decelerating or installation volume declines overwhelming pricing and matching gains.
- Watch for publisher payments, operational spending, cash taxes, or infrastructure costs rising faster than revenue for more than a short investment period.
- Watch for new disclosures that laws, app-store policies, or partner restrictions require changes to targeting, measurement, or data-processing practices.
- Watch whether advertising growth slows after the divestiture or transition obligations reduce cash generation.
- Watch for repurchases continuing while free cash flow weakens or debt service, taxes, or infrastructure spending absorb more cash.
APP news
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Financial statements
APP income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
APP: quick answers
- When does AppLovin (APP) report earnings next?
- AppLovin's next results are projected for February 10, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 4, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is APP's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 11.0M APP shares were sold short, 3.66% of its shares outstanding, down 1.2% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. APP short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded APP?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 18 trades in APP by 3 filers: 7 purchases and 11 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed APP trade
- Which well-known investors own APP?
- 6 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported APP shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Lone Pine Capital (Stephen Mandel), 3.3%; Fundsmith (Terry Smith), 2.6%; Whale Rock Capital, 1.9%. Fund portfolios
APP in well-known investors’ portfolios
6 of 37 funds reported APP shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen MandelLone Pine Capital | 3.3% | $537M | −28.9% | Q2 2026 |
| Terry SmithFundsmith | 2.6% | $359M | New | Q2 2026 |
| Whale Rock Capital | 1.9% | $238M | −33.6% | Q2 2026 |
| Philippe LaffontCoatue Management | 1.2% | $603M | −9.2% | Q2 2026 |
| Dan SundheimD1 Capital Partners | 0.99% | $345M | No change | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.31% | $75.5M | New | Q2 2026 |