Apollo Global Management
APONYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $122.74 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $122.80–$125.32 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 2.3M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $99.56–$153.29 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own APO if Apollo’s integrated origination + capital-formation engine turns large, long-duration insurance and alternative capital (notably Athene/Athora) into fee-bearing AUM and repeatable cash flow, which funds origination, preserves margins and supports shareholder distributions — provided regulatory/tax.
APO price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Apollo’s integrated origination and capital-formation capabilities are the causal engine that convert sourced private-market assets into fee-bearing AUM and recurring revenue (not episodic gains).HoldingMateriality: High
Annual revenue rose from $26,114,000,000 (2024) to $32,049,000,000 (2025), indicating stronger conversion of activities into top-line. If origination+placement hold, revenue and operating cash flow remain high and predictable, supporting margins and shareholder returns; if sourcing or placement fails, fee revenue and cash will decelerate sharply.
Watch: A major rollback of capital commitments by large buyers (e.g., institutional clients or Athene) that reduces placement demand and leaves originated assets unmonetized.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Annual revenue rose from $26,114,000,000 (2024) to $32,049,000,000 (2025), indicating stronger conversion of activities into top-line.
Open source ↗Athene/retirement-services relationships provide a large, long-duration source of fee-bearing assets and predictable cash flows that materially backstop Apollo’s origination and fee model.HoldingMateriality: High
Operating cash flow rose from $3,253,000,000 (2024) to $7,246,000,000 (2025), consistent with stronger cash conversion from core businesses that include retirement services. If the Athene relationship and retirement-services placements remain, Apollo keeps a predictable base of fee generation and a partner to absorb long-duration origination; if Athene materially disintermediates or economics change, predictable fee/cash converts to volatile, market-dependent revenue.
Watch: Athene or Athora renegotiates fee arrangements, internalizes asset management, or reduces allocations to Apollo-managed vehicles.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow rose from $3,253,000,000 (2024) to $7,246,000,000 (2025), consistent with stronger cash conversion from core businesses that include.
Open source ↗Sustained operating cash generation and a rising cash balance enable shareholder-friendly capital allocation (buybacks/dividends) and selective M&A that compound per-share value.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Cash and equivalents rose to $20,591,000,000 as of 2025-12-31 from $17,112,000,000 at 2024-12-31. If cash generation persists, Apollo can fund buybacks and strategic investments without overlevering; if cash falls (or repurchases become taxed), returns to shareholders will be lower and share multiple likely compresses.
Watch: An adverse final rule or tax (excise on repurchases, CAMT/BEAT) that raises the cost of share repurchases or reduces net distributable cash.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Cash and equivalents rose to $20,591,000,000 as of 2025-12-31 from $17,112,000,000 at 2024-12-31.
Open source ↗Tax and regulatory changes (Bermuda CIT revocation, BEAT/CAMT, excise tax on repurchases) are a leading causal threat that can materially reduce reported equity and cash available for distributions.WeakeningMateriality: Medium
MD&A explicitly states the revocation of ACRA’s election to be subject to Bermuda CIT is expected to reduce other assets and increase income tax provision equal to the Bermuda deferred tax assets of $1.7 billion, reducing equity. If tax/regulatory outcomes increase the company’s tax provision or create base erosion exposure, equity and distributable cash fall before operational metrics, forcing lower payouts or higher capital retention.
Watch: Favorable final regulatory guidance or tax rulings that limit BEAT/CAMT/excise application to Apollo’s structures.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A explicitly states the revocation of ACRA’s election to be subject to Bermuda CIT is expected to reduce other assets.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Apollo’s integrated origination and capital-formation capabilities are the causal engine that convert sourced private-market assets into fee-bearing AUM and recurring revenue (not episodic gains). If origination+placement hold, revenue and operating cash flow remain high and predictable, supporting margins and shareholder returns; if sourcing or placement fails, fee revenue and cash will decelerate sharply.
Athene/retirement-services relationships provide a large, long-duration source of fee-bearing assets and predictable cash flows that materially backstop Apollo’s origination and fee model. If the Athene relationship and retirement-services placements remain, Apollo keeps a predictable base of fee generation and a partner to absorb long-duration origination; if Athene materially disintermediates or economics change, predictable fee/cash converts to volatile, market-dependent revenue.
Sustained operating cash generation and a rising cash balance enable shareholder-friendly capital allocation (buybacks/dividends) and selective M&A that compound per-share value. If cash generation persists, Apollo can fund buybacks and strategic investments without overlevering; if cash falls (or repurchases become taxed), returns to shareholders will be lower and share multiple likely compresses.
Tax and regulatory changes (Bermuda CIT revocation, BEAT/CAMT, excise tax on repurchases) are a leading causal threat that can materially reduce reported equity and cash available for distributions. If tax/regulatory outcomes increase the company’s tax provision or create base erosion exposure, equity and distributable cash fall before operational metrics, forcing lower payouts or higher capital retention.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Apollo’s integrated origination + capital-formation engine turns large, long-duration insurance and alternative capital (notably Athene/Athora) into fee-bearing AUM and repeatable cash flow, which funds origination, preserves margins and supports shareholder distributions — provided regulatory/tax.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Apollo Global Management
Where the evidence on Apollo Global Management disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Nov 7, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 2 holding and 1 weakening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Apollo’s integrated origination and capital-formation capabilities are the causal engine that convert sourced private-market assets into fee-bearing AUM and recurring revenue (not episodic gains).
Athene/retirement-services relationships provide a large, long-duration source of fee-bearing assets and predictable cash flows that materially backstop Apollo’s origination and fee model.
Sustained operating cash generation and a rising cash balance enable shareholder-friendly capital allocation (buybacks/dividends) and selective M&A that compound per-share value.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
Tax and regulatory changes (Bermuda CIT revocation, BEAT/CAMT, excise tax on repurchases) are a leading causal threat that can materially reduce reported equity and cash available for distributions.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Apollo Global Management
OptimistFi is watching Apollo Global Management. No break-condition checks are on record yet — they accumulate as new filings are checked.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Apollo Global Management filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-03: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
Apollo Global Management filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-30: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Apollo Global Management filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-20: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A major rollback of capital commitments by large buyers (e.g., institutional clients or Athene) that reduces placement demand and leaves originated assets unmonetized.
- Athene or Athora renegotiates fee arrangements, internalizes asset management, or reduces allocations to Apollo-managed vehicles.
- An adverse final rule or tax (excise on repurchases, CAMT/BEAT) that raises the cost of share repurchases or reduces net distributable cash.
- Favorable final regulatory guidance or tax rulings that limit BEAT/CAMT/excise application to Apollo’s structures.
APO news
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Financial statements
APO income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
APO: quick answers
- What is APO's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 21.4M APO shares were sold short, 3.62% of its shares outstanding, down 9.1% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 6.3 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. APO short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded APO?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 2 trades in APO by 1 filer: 1 purchase and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed APO trade
- Which well-known investors own APO?
- 4 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported APO shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman), 1.3%; Markel Group (Tom Gayner), 0.9%; D1 Capital Partners (Dan Sundheim), 0.4%. Fund portfolios
APO in well-known investors’ portfolios
4 of 37 funds reported APO shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase ColemanTiger Global Management | 1.3% | $322M | −17.3% | Q2 2026 |
| Tom GaynerMarkel Group | 0.92% | $118M | No change | Q3 2026 |
| Dan SundheimD1 Capital Partners | 0.39% | $137M | No change | Q2 2026 |
| George SorosSoros Fund Management | 0.05% | $4.1M | −73.3% | Q2 2026 |