Applied Digital
APLDNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $17.91 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $16.23–$17.58 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 23.6M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 12, 4:00 PM ET.
- Jan 6 projected Projected for 2027-01-06 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $13.12–$50.73 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
- Applied Digital develops large powered data-center campuses and leases critical information-technology load to CoreWeave and investment-grade hyperscalers for artificial-intelligence and high-performance-computing workloads.↗↗
- Legacy crypto-mining hosting remains alongside long-term AI data-center leases. The cloud-services business was divested in May 2026 and is no longer an operating segment.↗
Why this business is different
- Its edge is controlling large contiguous sites with power and interconnection rights before customers need them, because the company says that bottleneck limits new capacity.↗
- The drawback is concentration: a few large customers can fill campuses quickly, but one customer failure could pressure revenue, cash flow and financing confidence.↗
What could matter next
- The next test is repeating Polaris Forge’s delivery across newer campuses. Contracted lease revenue spans many years and still needs buildings, customer performance and financing.↗↗
- Financing terms will shape shareholder returns because the company must fund expensive construction before long-term lease cash flows fully arrive.↗
Why the Stock Moved
- Jun 2025 · CoreWeave anchors Polaris: Expectations shifted from a negotiated development pipeline to a named, long-term artificial intelligence infrastructure lease. CoreWeave signed approximately 15-year leases for 250 megawatts. Long-duration leased capacity improved visibility for future rent and financing.↗
- Jun 2026 · Franchise scales campuses: The growth story broadened from Polaris Forge 1 toward a multi-campus franchise. Delta Forge 2 lifted contracted base-term revenue to about $36 billion across five campuses. More sites expanded the rent opportunity, not necessarily the tenant base.↗
- Oct 2025 · Macquarie funds buildout: Funding risk eased, although additional capital remained conditional. The first Macquarie draw was $112.5 million under a facility of up to $5.0 billion. Capital access mattered because leases required major construction before earnings could arrive.↗
The core investment thesis
Own APLD if hyperscalers keep renting its power-rich campuses, construction stays on schedule, and asset-level financing prevents the lease backlog from becoming an equity-funded buildout burden.
APLD price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
The stock must keep turning scarce powered land into long-duration large-customer lease commitments.StrengtheningMateriality: High
The initial 250-megawatt CoreWeave leases were followed by a portfolio totaling about $36 billion across five campuses in June 2026. That figure covers base lease terms, not annual sales or cash collected. Signed megawatt leases create revenue visibility only if customers keep needing outside power-rich artificial intelligence capacity instead of building or shifting workloads elsewhere.
Watch: Watch for fewer large leases, downsized commitments, or customers choosing self-build capacity.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
The initial CoreWeave contracts covered 250 megawatts over roughly fifteen years.
Open source ↗The five-campus portfolio carries multi-year contracted revenue, excluding optional renewal periods.
Open source ↗The business needs power and interconnection scarcity to remain the economic bottleneck large cloud customers pay it to solve.HoldingMateriality: High
The 2026 Form 10-K says securing power and interconnection ahead of demand is the principal constraint on new high-performance computing capacity. Applied Digital’s main edge is controlling large sites with power and interconnection; if that bottleneck eases, its negotiating position weakens.
Watch: Watch utility interconnection delays, competing powered campuses, or evidence that tenants can source comparable capacity faster elsewhere.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Management identifies advance control of powered land and grid connections as a competitive strength, not a guaranteed moat.
Open source ↗The thesis depends on Applied Digital repeatedly delivering live capacity on the timetable embedded in customer leases.StrengtheningMateriality: High
July 2026 delivery covered the first 75-megawatt phase of Polaris Forge 1’s second building. Campus operating capacity reached 175 megawatts against 400 megawatts contracted. Leases do not produce their intended economics until campuses become operational; construction slippage pushes out rent and can leave fixed costs exposed.
Watch: Watch missed Ready for Service dates, repeated equipment failures, or tenant deployment delays.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Only the first phase of Building 2 reached service; the rest of the contracted campus still required delivery.
Open source ↗Future returns need project-level financing to fund buildouts without overwhelming common shareholders.HoldingMateriality: High
October 2025’s first Macquarie funding was $112.5 million under an up-to-$5 billion perpetual preferred-equity facility. Further draws were conditional on project financing, not all immediately available cash. Project financing can reduce corporate equity needs, but preferred capital and debt still claim project economics. Funding access alone does not prove attractive returns for common shareholders.
Watch: Watch debt pricing, covenant pressure, completion guarantees, and whether new campuses secure asset-level capital before major spending.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
The initial draw was a small portion of the potential preferred-capital facility, with further funding linked to project financing.
Open source ↗The stock must have major tenants remain financially healthy and committed through long construction and lease periods.UnclearMateriality: High
The FY2026 filing warns of concentrated revenue. Delta Forge 2 was the third lease with the same unnamed hyperscaler, so a fifth campus did not establish five independent customers. A small number of very large tenants can accelerate growth, but any nonperformance would hit cash flow and financing confidence disproportionately.
Watch: Watch tenant credit changes, lease amendments, delayed payments, or rising exposure to one customer.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
The filing warns that financial trouble at one major customer could materially hurt operations and cash flow.
Open source ↗Delta Forge 2 repeats an existing hyperscaler relationship rather than announcing a new tenant.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
The stock must keep turning scarce powered land into long-duration large-customer lease commitments. Signed megawatt leases create revenue visibility only if customers keep needing outside power-rich artificial intelligence capacity instead of building or shifting workloads elsewhere.
The business needs power and interconnection scarcity to remain the economic bottleneck large cloud customers pay it to solve. Applied Digital’s main edge is controlling large sites with power and interconnection; if that bottleneck eases, its negotiating position weakens.
The thesis depends on Applied Digital repeatedly delivering live capacity on the timetable embedded in customer leases. Leases do not produce their intended economics until campuses become operational; construction slippage pushes out rent and can leave fixed costs exposed.
Future returns need project-level financing to fund buildouts without overwhelming common shareholders. Project financing can reduce corporate equity needs, but preferred capital and debt still claim project economics. Funding access alone does not prove attractive returns for common shareholders.
The stock must have major tenants remain financially healthy and committed through long construction and lease periods. A small number of very large tenants can accelerate growth, but any nonperformance would hit cash flow and financing confidence disproportionately.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
hyperscalers keep renting its power-rich campuses, construction stays on schedule, and asset-level financing prevents the lease backlog from becoming an equity-funded buildout burden.
Since this case
What has happened since Sep 29, 2026
The case above was written from evidence through Sep 29, 2026 and stays as written. This part is read from SEC filings and closing prices each time the page is built, so it moves as new reports are filed.
- Results
- Q1 2027, the quarter to Aug 31, 2026, reported Oct 7, 2026 (8-K ↗): revenue $341.9M, up 322.4% on the same quarter a year earlier; net income -$184.1M. Over the 12 months to Aug 31, 2026: revenue $872.3M, net income -$351.5M (-40.3% of revenue).
- Share price
- -29.5% since Sep 29, 2026, from $25.41 to $17.91 on Nov 11, 2026. The stock alone, not measured against other companies.
- Filings
- 1 8-K filing since Sep 29, 2026:
- Insiders
- Bought $6.7M and sold $682,500 on the open market in 3 transactions since Sep 29, 2026, from their Form 4 filings.
- Conditions
- None of the conditions the Thesis-Break Engine checks has crossed on Applied Digital since Sep 29, 2026.
Read from SEC filings and closing prices through Nov 12, 2026. A filing made today can take up to about four hours to appear here.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Applied Digital Corp.
Where the evidence on Applied Digital disagrees: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Sep 29, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 2 strengthening, 2 holding and 1 unclear.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
The stock must keep turning scarce powered land into long-duration large-customer lease commitments.
The business needs power and interconnection scarcity to remain the economic bottleneck large cloud customers pay it to solve.
The thesis depends on Applied Digital repeatedly delivering live capacity on the timetable embedded in customer leases.
Polaris Forge 1 second-building delivery release, Jul 1, 2026 ↗
Future returns need project-level financing to fund buildouts without overwhelming common shareholders.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
The stock must have major tenants remain financially healthy and committed through long construction and lease periods.
Company research
Research on Applied Digital
- Reference guide · Applied Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: APLD) Must Build 1.3 Gigawatts
Only 100 of 1,410 contracted megawatts was operating at fiscal year-end, while the AI-campus developer carried $5.3 billion of debt obligations.
- Reporting · Why Is Applied Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: APLD) Stock Down 26% This Year?
Capacity and revenue expanded quickly, but adjusted EBITDA still fell short of gross interest expense as the AI data-center buildout consumed capital.
- Reporting · Applied Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: APLD) Has a 0.83x Interest Test
Adjusted EBITDA covered 83% of quarterly interest expense. New rent can close the gap, but the current quarter did not.
- Reporting · Applied Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: APLD) Brings 250 MW Online
A new 75 MW phase puts 62.5% of Polaris Forge 1's contracted capacity into service. Rent and cash conversion remain the next test.
- Reporting · Applied Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: APLD) Has 56% of Contracts With One Customer
One investment-grade hyperscaler represents $20 billion of a $36 billion contract book. Nearly 80% of contracted power has investment-grade support.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Applied Digital
No break has crossed Applied Digital’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- SupportiveFirst phase of Polaris Forge 1’s second building delivered
The company reported Ready for Service for Phase 1 of Building 2 at Polaris Forge 1, adding 75 megawatts of live capacity and bringing campus live capacity to 175 megawatts. Execution matters because rent requires energized capacity, not just signed leases.
- SupportiveDelta Forge 2 lease extends the campus model
Delta Forge 2 added a 210-megawatt, 15-year take-or-pay agreement with an existing hyperscaler. June’s roughly $36 billion portfolio total covers base lease terms. Initial operations were still forecast for 2028, so contracted revenue was not immediately billable.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Watch for fewer large leases, downsized commitments, or customers choosing self-build capacity.
- Watch utility interconnection delays, competing powered campuses, or evidence that tenants can source comparable capacity faster elsewhere.
- Watch missed Ready for Service dates, repeated equipment failures, or tenant deployment delays.
- Watch debt pricing, covenant pressure, completion guarantees, and whether new campuses secure asset-level capital before major spending.
- Watch tenant credit changes, lease amendments, delayed payments, or rising exposure to one customer.
APLD news
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Financial statements
APLD income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
APLD: quick answers
- When does Applied Digital (APLD) report earnings next?
- Applied Digital's next results are projected for January 6, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 7, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is APLD's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 61.4M APLD shares were sold short, 20.3% of its shares outstanding, down 6.2% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. APLD short interest history
- Which well-known investors own APLD?
- 3 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported APLD shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Situational Awareness (Leopold Aschenbrenner), 2.3%; Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman), 0.1%; Third Point (Dan Loeb), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
APLD in well-known investors’ portfolios
3 of 37 funds reported APLD shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leopold AschenbrennerSituational Awareness | 2.3% | $469M | +14.1% | Q2 2026 |
| Chase ColemanTiger Global Management | 0.14% | $33.0M | New | Q2 2026 |
| Dan LoebThird Point | 0.02% | $821K | New | Q2 2026 |