APi Group
APGNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $42.73 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $42.68–$44.10 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 2.8M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 24 projected Projected for 2027-02-24 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $35.57–$49.99 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own APG if its recurring fire, life-safety, security, elevator and specialty services keep expanding margins and cash faster than the labor- and acquisition-heavy model dilutes common shareholders.
APG price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Code- and uptime-driven facility requirements keep customers outsourcing APi’s fire, life-safety, security, elevator/escalator and specialty services rather than treating them as discretionary construction spend.StrengtheningMateriality: High
The company description identifies APi as a global provider of fire and life safety, security, elevator and escalator, and specialty services with a substantial recurring revenue base. If this holds, APi can grow through cycles with less demand volatility; if it breaks, the business becomes a more cyclical project contractor.
Watch: Large facility owners move inspection and maintenance work in-house or consolidate it away from APi to national rivals such as Johnson Controls, Honeywell or Carrier-related fire/security service providers.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
The company description identifies APi as a global provider of fire and life safety, security, elevator and escalator, and specialty.
Open source ↗APi’s service mix, pricing discipline and route density continue to raise unit economics faster than labor and materials costs.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual gross profit rose from $1.714 billion in FY2022 to $2.487 billion in FY2025. This is the difference between valuable growth and low-quality volume; margin expansion proves the platform has pricing and operating leverage.
Watch: Skilled technician wage inflation or labor shortages accelerate and APi cannot pass the cost through in service pricing.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual gross profit rose from $1.714 billion in FY2022 to $2.487 billion in FY2025.
Open source ↗APi’s decentralized branch network and acquisition integration capabilities turn scale into operating leverage instead of merely adding acquired revenue.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating income rose from $162 million in FY2022 to $554 million in FY2025. If integration works, incremental revenue compounds into higher operating profit; if not, APi is just a bigger low-margin roll-up.
Watch: Acquired branches fail to standardize systems, procurement, safety practices or pricing, leaving duplicated overhead.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating income rose from $162 million in FY2022 to $554 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗The recurring-service model and working-capital discipline generate cash that can fund bolt-on acquisitions, debt reduction or reinvestment without relying heavily on external capital.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow rose from $270 million in FY2022 to $759 million in FY2025. Cash self-funding makes the roll-up more durable; if working capital absorbs profits, growth becomes dependent on debt or equity markets.
Watch: A larger share of revenue comes from project work with slower collections and higher working-capital needs.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow rose from $270 million in FY2022 to $759 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗Operating gains must begin translating into common-share economics rather than being absorbed by financing structure, dilution, preferred claims or acquisition-related charges.WeakeningMateriality: Medium
GAAP net income was positive in FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025. A good business is not enough if common shareholders do not receive the compounding through per-share earnings and cash flow.
Watch: Future acquisitions are funded with materially dilutive equity or securities that keep common diluted EPS negative.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP net income was positive in FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Code- and uptime-driven facility requirements keep customers outsourcing APi’s fire, life-safety, security, elevator/escalator and specialty services rather than treating them as discretionary construction spend. If this holds, APi can grow through cycles with less demand volatility; if it breaks, the business becomes a more cyclical project contractor.
APi’s service mix, pricing discipline and route density continue to raise unit economics faster than labor and materials costs. This is the difference between valuable growth and low-quality volume; margin expansion proves the platform has pricing and operating leverage.
APi’s decentralized branch network and acquisition integration capabilities turn scale into operating leverage instead of merely adding acquired revenue. If integration works, incremental revenue compounds into higher operating profit; if not, APi is just a bigger low-margin roll-up.
The recurring-service model and working-capital discipline generate cash that can fund bolt-on acquisitions, debt reduction or reinvestment without relying heavily on external capital. Cash self-funding makes the roll-up more durable; if working capital absorbs profits, growth becomes dependent on debt or equity markets.
Operating gains must begin translating into common-share economics rather than being absorbed by financing structure, dilution, preferred claims or acquisition-related charges. A good business is not enough if common shareholders do not receive the compounding through per-share earnings and cash flow.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
its recurring fire, life-safety, security, elevator and specialty services keep expanding margins and cash faster than the labor- and acquisition-heavy model dilutes common shareholders.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for APi Group
Where the evidence on APi Group disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 4 strengthening and 1 weakening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Code- and uptime-driven facility requirements keep customers outsourcing APi’s fire, life-safety, security, elevator/escalator and specialty services rather than treating them as discretionary construction spend.
APi’s service mix, pricing discipline and route density continue to raise unit economics faster than labor and materials costs.
APi’s decentralized branch network and acquisition integration capabilities turn scale into operating leverage instead of merely adding acquired revenue.
The recurring-service model and working-capital discipline generate cash that can fund bolt-on acquisitions, debt reduction or reinvestment without relying heavily on external capital.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
Operating gains must begin translating into common-share economics rather than being absorbed by financing structure, dilution, preferred claims or acquisition-related charges.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · APi Group
No break has crossed APi Group’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
APi Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
APi Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-02: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
APi Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-09: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Large facility owners move inspection and maintenance work in-house or consolidate it away from APi to national rivals such as Johnson Controls, Honeywell or Carrier-related fire/security service providers.
- Skilled technician wage inflation or labor shortages accelerate and APi cannot pass the cost through in service pricing.
- Acquired branches fail to standardize systems, procurement, safety practices or pricing, leaving duplicated overhead.
- A larger share of revenue comes from project work with slower collections and higher working-capital needs.
- Future acquisitions are funded with materially dilutive equity or securities that keep common diluted EPS negative.
APG news
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Financial statements
APG income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
APG: quick answers
- When does APi Group (APG) report earnings next?
- APi Group's next results are projected for February 24, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is APG's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 11.9M APG shares were sold short, 2.81% of its shares outstanding, up 14.9% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.0 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. APG short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded APG?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 4 trades in APG by 2 filers: 2 purchases and 2 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed APG trade
- Which well-known investors own APG?
- 2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported APG shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Durable Capital Partners, 5.0%; Third Point (Dan Loeb), 2.6%. Fund portfolios
APG in well-known investors’ portfolios
2 of 37 funds reported APG shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Capital Partners | 5.0% | $514M | −17.9% | Q2 2026 |
| Dan LoebThird Point | 2.6% | $121M | +41.1% | Q2 2026 |