ARKO Petroleum

APCNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$14.54
−$0.13 (−0.92%)Today 1M −9.61%

Updated Nov 13, 3:09 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$14.67
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$14.25–$14.92
Regular-session low and high so far today.
98.7K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 13, 3:09 PM ET.
Jan 27 projected
Projected for 2027-01-27 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$13.72–$21.72
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own APC if its multi-state supply network keeps customers from self-sourcing while its balance sheet can fund the working capital that fuel distribution requires.

APC price history

Latest price$14.54Today−$0.13 (-0.92%)
APC -9.50%S&P 500 -3.18%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • APC’s broad distribution footprint continues to solve customers’ fuel-sourcing reliability problem, so independent or regional customers keep using APC instead of self-sourcing or moving to smaller local wholesalers.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Profile description identifies APC as a growth-oriented fuel distribution company and one of the largest wholesale fuel distributors by gallons in North America. If the network is sticky, scale can compound volume and bargaining power; if customers bypass it, APC becomes a commodity middleman with weak pricing power.

    Watch: Large customers sign direct supply arrangements with integrated refiners or branded suppliers such as ExxonMobil, Shell or BP, reducing the need for APC as an intermediary.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Profile description identifies APC as a growth-oriented fuel distribution company and one of the largest wholesale fuel distributors by gallons.

    Open source ↗
  • Petroleum wholesale demand remains durable enough in APC’s served markets that the company’s distribution capacity stays economically relevant despite electrification and fuel-efficiency pressure.HoldingMateriality: High

    The company is classified in SEC SIC 5172: Wholesale-Petroleum & Petroleum Products. Stable end-market demand lets APC focus on share, density and spread; a faster structural decline would turn scale into stranded capacity.

    Watch: Accelerated electric-vehicle adoption by commercial fleets or retail consumers reduces gasoline and diesel throughput in APC’s regions faster than station consolidation can offset.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    The company is classified in SEC SIC 5172: Wholesale-Petroleum & Petroleum Products.

    Open source ↗
  • Supplier and lender confidence remains intact, because APC’s wholesale model needs credit capacity to finance fuel purchases, receivables and inventory before customer demand can turn into cash.WeakeningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP liabilities were $1.237 billion at fiscal year-end 2025, indicating the business is already financed with substantial obligations. Even a useful distribution network can destroy equity value if working-capital funding tightens or creditors capture the economics.

    Watch: Banks reduce revolver availability, tighten covenants or require accelerated amortization after fuel-price volatility or weak cash conversion.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP liabilities were $1.237 billion at fiscal year-end 2025, indicating the business is already financed with substantial obligations.

    Open source ↗
  • APC’s operating model must generate or preserve enough cash internally to fund working-capital swings; otherwise growth increases financial fragility rather than owner value.WeakeningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP cash and cash equivalents were positive at $15.6 million at fiscal year-end 2025. Cash conversion determines whether scale benefits accrue to equity holders or are consumed by financing needs.

    Watch: Fuel-price volatility expands receivables and inventory requirements, consuming cash before customer collections arrive.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP cash and cash equivalents were positive at $15.6 million at fiscal year-end 2025.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

APC’s broad distribution footprint continues to solve customers’ fuel-sourcing reliability problem, so independent or regional customers keep using APC instead of self-sourcing or moving to smaller local wholesalers. If the network is sticky, scale can compound volume and bargaining power; if customers bypass it, APC becomes a commodity middleman with weak pricing power.

Petroleum wholesale demand remains durable enough in APC’s served markets that the company’s distribution capacity stays economically relevant despite electrification and fuel-efficiency pressure. Stable end-market demand lets APC focus on share, density and spread; a faster structural decline would turn scale into stranded capacity.

Supplier and lender confidence remains intact, because APC’s wholesale model needs credit capacity to finance fuel purchases, receivables and inventory before customer demand can turn into cash. Even a useful distribution network can destroy equity value if working-capital funding tightens or creditors capture the economics.

APC’s operating model must generate or preserve enough cash internally to fund working-capital swings; otherwise growth increases financial fragility rather than owner value. Cash conversion determines whether scale benefits accrue to equity holders or are consumed by financing needs.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its multi-state supply network keeps customers from self-sourcing while its balance sheet can fund the working capital that fuel distribution requires.

Evidence assessed Oct 13, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for ARKO Petroleum

Where the evidence on ARKO Petroleum disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Oct 13, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 1 holding and 2 weakening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • APC’s broad distribution footprint continues to solve customers’ fuel-sourcing reliability problem, so independent or regional customers keep using APC instead of self-sourcing or moving to smaller local wholesalers.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Petroleum wholesale demand remains durable enough in APC’s served markets that the company’s distribution capacity stays economically relevant despite electrification and fuel-efficiency pressure.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what the evidence questions

  • Supplier and lender confidence remains intact, because APC’s wholesale model needs credit capacity to finance fuel purchases, receivables and inventory before customer demand can turn into cash.

    sec.gov ↗

  • APC’s operating model must generate or preserve enough cash internally to fund working-capital swings; otherwise growth increases financial fragility rather than owner value.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · ARKO Petroleum

No break has crossed ARKO Petroleum’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    ARKO Petroleum filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-06: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Entered a material definitive agreement.

    ARKO Petroleum filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-06: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    ARKO Petroleum filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-11: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Large customers sign direct supply arrangements with integrated refiners or branded suppliers such as ExxonMobil, Shell or BP, reducing the need for APC as an intermediary.
  • Accelerated electric-vehicle adoption by commercial fleets or retail consumers reduces gasoline and diesel throughput in APC’s regions faster than station consolidation can offset.
  • Banks reduce revolver availability, tighten covenants or require accelerated amortization after fuel-price volatility or weak cash conversion.
  • Fuel-price volatility expands receivables and inventory requirements, consuming cash before customer collections arrive.

APC news

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Financial statements

APC income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

APC: quick answers

When does ARKO Petroleum (APC) report earnings next?
ARKO Petroleum's next results are projected for January 27, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 4, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is APC's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 718,147 APC shares were sold short, down 6.0% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 7.0 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. APC short interest history
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