A. O. Smith
AOSNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $64.36 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $63.29–$64.82 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.5M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $54.16–$81.87 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own AOS if household-appliance replacement demand and cost discipline can keep cash earnings resilient even with only modest revenue growth.
AOS price history
Loading recent earnings…
Investment thesis
What must happen next
Household-appliance replacement demand remains resilient enough that AOS avoids a demand cliff even without a housing-led growth cycle.HoldingMateriality: High
Revenue remains stable to modestly higher rather than breaking below the recent annual run rate. This is a load-bearing condition for Smith A O's investment case.
Watch: Retailers, distributors, or end customers shift materially toward cheaper private-label or imported household appliances, reducing AOS shelf space or order commitments before reported sales roll over.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Revenue remains stable to modestly higher rather than breaking below the recent annual run rate.
Open source ↗AOS retains enough pricing power and manufacturing discipline to offset input-cost volatility rather than buying sales with lower spread.HoldingMateriality: High
Gross profit grows at least in line with revenue, keeping gross margin near recent levels. This is a load-bearing condition for Smith A O's investment case.
Watch: Steel, components, freight, or labor inflation returns while customers reject price increases, forcing AOS to absorb costs or offer broader discounts.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Gross profit grows at least in line with revenue, keeping gross margin near recent levels.
Open source ↗The company’s cost structure stays disciplined, so stable sales can still translate into high operating earnings rather than margin mean reversion.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Operating income holds near the post-2022 level and operating margin remains in the high-teens range. This is a load-bearing condition for Smith A O's investment case.
Watch: Management adds fixed manufacturing capacity or SG&A ahead of demand, or competitors intensify promotions enough to force AOS to spend more to defend share.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating income holds near the post-2022 level and operating margin remains in the high-teens range.
Open source ↗AOS continues to convert accounting profit into usable cash, giving it flexibility to fund dividends, reinvestment, or acquisitions without relying on leverage.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Operating cash flow remains close to or above net income over the next reporting periods. This is a load-bearing condition for Smith A O's investment case.
Watch: A channel slowdown causes inventories or receivables to build, tying up working capital before revenue and earnings fully deteriorate.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow remains close to or above net income over the next reporting periods.
Open source ↗Balance-sheet conservatism remains part of the model, limiting downside in a cyclical downturn and preserving optionality for capital allocation.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Liabilities remain controlled relative to equity and do not rise sharply to fund operations. This is a load-bearing condition for Smith A O's investment case.
Watch: A debt-funded acquisition, restructuring, or working-capital build materially increases liabilities before any acquired growth proves durable.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Liabilities remain controlled relative to equity and do not rise sharply to fund operations.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
Loading the original research archive…
Original research
Household-appliance replacement demand remains resilient enough that AOS avoids a demand cliff even without a housing-led growth cycle. This is a load-bearing condition for Smith A O's investment case.
AOS retains enough pricing power and manufacturing discipline to offset input-cost volatility rather than buying sales with lower spread. This is a load-bearing condition for Smith A O's investment case.
The company’s cost structure stays disciplined, so stable sales can still translate into high operating earnings rather than margin mean reversion. This is a load-bearing condition for Smith A O's investment case.
AOS continues to convert accounting profit into usable cash, giving it flexibility to fund dividends, reinvestment, or acquisitions without relying on leverage. This is a load-bearing condition for Smith A O's investment case.
Balance-sheet conservatism remains part of the model, limiting downside in a cyclical downturn and preserving optionality for capital allocation. This is a load-bearing condition for Smith A O's investment case.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
household-appliance replacement demand and cost discipline can keep cash earnings resilient even with only modest revenue growth.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Smith A O
Where the evidence on Smith A O stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 12, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 5 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Household-appliance replacement demand remains resilient enough that AOS avoids a demand cliff even without a housing-led growth cycle.
AOS retains enough pricing power and manufacturing discipline to offset input-cost volatility rather than buying sales with lower spread.
The company’s cost structure stays disciplined, so stable sales can still translate into high operating earnings rather than margin mean reversion.
AOS continues to convert accounting profit into usable cash, giving it flexibility to fund dividends, reinvestment, or acquisitions without relying on leverage.
Balance-sheet conservatism remains part of the model, limiting downside in a cyclical downturn and preserving optionality for capital allocation.
Bear case: what would count against it
Retailers, distributors, or end customers shift materially toward cheaper private-label or imported household appliances, reducing AOS shelf space or order commitments before reported sales roll over.
Steel, components, freight, or labor inflation returns while customers reject price increases, forcing AOS to absorb costs or offer broader discounts.
Management adds fixed manufacturing capacity or SG&A ahead of demand, or competitors intensify promotions enough to force AOS to spend more to defend share.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Smith A O
Loading the break-condition record for Smith A O.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Smith A O filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Smith A O filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-22: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Smith A O filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-19: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Retailers, distributors, or end customers shift materially toward cheaper private-label or imported household appliances, reducing AOS shelf space or order commitments before reported sales roll over.
- Steel, components, freight, or labor inflation returns while customers reject price increases, forcing AOS to absorb costs or offer broader discounts.
- Management adds fixed manufacturing capacity or SG&A ahead of demand, or competitors intensify promotions enough to force AOS to spend more to defend share.
- A channel slowdown causes inventories or receivables to build, tying up working capital before revenue and earnings fully deteriorate.
- A debt-funded acquisition, restructuring, or working-capital build materially increases liabilities before any acquired growth proves durable.
AOS news
Loading headlines…
Financial statements
AOS income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
AOS: quick answers
- Have members of Congress traded AOS?
- 38 trades in AOS have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed AOS trade
- Which well-known investors own AOS?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported AOS shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
AOS in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported AOS shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.01% | $2.3M | New | Q2 2026 |