Alignment Healthcare
ALHCNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $7.67 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $7.54–$7.81 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 3.3M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 25 projected Projected for 2027-02-25 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $6.01–$25.12 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own ALHC if Alignment Healthcare turns Medicare Advantage capitation into durable profits by using its AVA data platform plus employed 'Care Anywhere' clinical teams to lower per-member costs, win share from incumbents, and convert scale into cash.
ALHC price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
AVA analytics combined with employed Care Anywhere clinicians will continue to reduce per-member clinical spend (MBR) and produce sustained operating-profitability as enrollment scales.StrengtheningMateriality: High
operating_income moved from large losses in prior years to positive $14,752,000 (operating_income) in FY2025, indicating early leverage of the model. If true, scale turns into durable operating income and cash that funds expansion and justifies a premium multiple; if false, growth will be margin-accretive but not profitable, leaving the valuation vulnerable.
Watch: Provider network pushes back on capitation/contracting leading to higher negotiated prices and rising claims costs that outstrip AVA-driven savings.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_income moved from large losses in prior years to positive $14,752,000 (operating_income) in FY2025, indicating early leverage of the model.
Open source ↗Membership growth (market-share wins in existing markets and selective new-market entries) will be the primary engine of revenue and create operating leverage because AVA and Care Anywhere have large fixed-cost components.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Revenue grew from $1.167B (FY2021) to $3.949B (FY2025) (revenue), showing the business scales with membership. Continued high enrollment growth converts to predictable revenue and spreads fixed technology/clinical costs, improving per-member economics and enabling faster path to sustained profits.
Watch: Annual Enrollment Period (AEP) enrollment stalls or reverses in key markets because incumbents or large national plans undercut pricing or offer richer networks.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Revenue grew from $1.167B (FY2021) to $3.949B (FY2025) (revenue), showing the business scales with membership.
Open source ↗Maintaining 4+ CMS Star ratings and high retention protects per-member revenue (rebates/PMPM economics) and thus supports consistent cash generation.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Operating_cash_flow rose to $139,927,000 in FY2025, consistent with improved quality-driven economics. Star ratings directly affect rebate dollars and enrollee retention; sustaining them preserves the incentive flows that underpin profitable unit economics and cash flow.
Watch: CMS changes Star methodology or decreases weight on measures where Alignment outperforms, reducing future rebate upside.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating_cash_flow rose to $139,927,000 in FY2025, consistent with improved quality-driven economics.
Open source ↗A growing cash balance and improved operating cash flow provide a runway to invest in market entry and to absorb short-term claims volatility without equity dilution.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
cash rose to $575,817,000 as of 12/31/2025 (cash), up materially from $432,859,000 at 12/31/2024 and $202,904,000 at 12/31/2023. If cash generation persists, Alignment can fund marketing and network build-out to capture more seniors; if cash weakens, it may need to raise equity or cut growth, reducing upside.
Watch: Large, unexpected multi-state claims spike (e.g., pandemic-level utilization or catastrophic events) requiring higher reserves.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
cash rose to $575,817,000 as of 12/31/2025 (cash), up materially from $432,859,000 at 12/31/2024 and $202,904,000 at 12/31/2023.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
AVA analytics combined with employed Care Anywhere clinicians will continue to reduce per-member clinical spend (MBR) and produce sustained operating-profitability as enrollment scales. If true, scale turns into durable operating income and cash that funds expansion and justifies a premium multiple; if false, growth will be margin-accretive but not profitable, leaving the valuation vulnerable.
Membership growth (market-share wins in existing markets and selective new-market entries) will be the primary engine of revenue and create operating leverage because AVA and Care Anywhere have large fixed-cost components. Continued high enrollment growth converts to predictable revenue and spreads fixed technology/clinical costs, improving per-member economics and enabling faster path to sustained profits.
Maintaining 4+ CMS Star ratings and high retention protects per-member revenue (rebates/PMPM economics) and thus supports consistent cash generation. Star ratings directly affect rebate dollars and enrollee retention; sustaining them preserves the incentive flows that underpin profitable unit economics and cash flow.
A growing cash balance and improved operating cash flow provide a runway to invest in market entry and to absorb short-term claims volatility without equity dilution. If cash generation persists, Alignment can fund marketing and network build-out to capture more seniors; if cash weakens, it may need to raise equity or cut growth, reducing upside.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Alignment Healthcare turns Medicare Advantage capitation into durable profits by using its AVA data platform plus employed 'Care Anywhere' clinical teams to lower per-member costs, win share from incumbents, and convert scale into cash.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Alignment Healthcare
Where the evidence on Alignment Healthcare stands: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Nov 6, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 4 strengthening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
AVA analytics combined with employed Care Anywhere clinicians will continue to reduce per-member clinical spend (MBR) and produce sustained operating-profitability as enrollment scales.
Membership growth (market-share wins in existing markets and selective new-market entries) will be the primary engine of revenue and create operating leverage because AVA and Care Anywhere have large fixed-cost components.
Maintaining 4+ CMS Star ratings and high retention protects per-member revenue (rebates/PMPM economics) and thus supports consistent cash generation.
A growing cash balance and improved operating cash flow provide a runway to invest in market entry and to absorb short-term claims volatility without equity dilution.
Bear case: what would count against it
Provider network pushes back on capitation/contracting leading to higher negotiated prices and rising claims costs that outstrip AVA-driven savings.
Annual Enrollment Period (AEP) enrollment stalls or reverses in key markets because incumbents or large national plans undercut pricing or offer richer networks.
CMS changes Star methodology or decreases weight on measures where Alignment outperforms, reducing future rebate upside.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Alignment Healthcare’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Alignment Healthcare, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Alignment Healthcare.
- Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Alignment Healthcare filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
Alignment Healthcare filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-08: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Alignment Healthcare filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Provider network pushes back on capitation/contracting leading to higher negotiated prices and rising claims costs that outstrip AVA-driven savings.
- Annual Enrollment Period (AEP) enrollment stalls or reverses in key markets because incumbents or large national plans undercut pricing or offer richer networks.
- CMS changes Star methodology or decreases weight on measures where Alignment outperforms, reducing future rebate upside.
- Large, unexpected multi-state claims spike (e.g., pandemic-level utilization or catastrophic events) requiring higher reserves.
ALHC news
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Financial statements
ALHC income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
ALHC: quick answers
- When does Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) report earnings next?
- Alignment Healthcare's next results are projected for February 25, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is ALHC's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 23.1M ALHC shares were sold short, 11.1% of its shares outstanding, down 9.3% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.9 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. ALHC short interest history