American International Group
AIGNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $82.32 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $81.64–$83.11 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 3.1M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 9 projected Projected for 2027-02-09 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $71.25–$87.29 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own AIG if it sustains underwriting discipline, converts a smaller but higher-quality balance sheet into consistent operating cash flow, and uses that cash to fund capital returns while avoiding large reserve hits or regulatory/tax shocks.
AIG price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Sustained underwriting discipline and conservative reserve-setting will keep underwriting volatility low enough that net underwriting results plus investment income produce repeatable positive net_income.HoldingMateriality: High
Net income recovered to 3,096,000,000 USD in FY 2025 after a -1,404,000,000 USD loss in FY 2024, showing the business can swing back to profitable underwriting/investment mix. If true, AIG will deliver predictable earnings that justify capital returns and a higher multiple; if false, large reserve hits will reintroduce earnings volatility and capital constraints.
Watch: A major catastrophe season (large hurricane, earthquake) producing large insured losses relative to reinsurance limits.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Net income recovered to 3,096,000,000 USD in FY 2025 after a -1,404,000,000 USD loss in FY 2024, showing the business.
Open source ↗AIG's capacity to return capital and sustain valuation depends on persistent positive operating cash flow arising from underwriting and investment cash yield; cash flow—not GAAP noise—will determine true shareholder returns.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Operating cash flow: 3,314,000,000 USD in FY 2025 and 3,273,000,000 USD in FY 2024, showing a floor of cash generation in recent years. If operating_cash_flow stays reliably positive, management can fund buybacks/dividends without jeopardizing solvency; if cash flow weakens, capital returns and the valuation will be cut.
Watch: Regulatory capital requirement increase or rating agency action that forces retention of cash.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow: 3,314,000,000 USD in FY 2025 and 3,273,000,000 USD in FY 2024, showing a floor of cash generation.
Open source ↗AIG's earnings sensitivity to market yields and credit spreads will be driven by the size and mix of its invested assets; a deliberately smaller, higher-quality asset base can lower volatility but caps investment income upside.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Reported total assets fell materially from 539,306,000,000 USD in FY 2023 to 161,254,000,000 USD in FY 2025, indicating significant balance-sheet repositioning or divestitures. If the balance sheet is successfully repositioned to higher-quality, lower-duration investments, earnings become less cyclical and capital returns more durable; if repositioning leaves concentration or duration risk, investment shocks can quickly depress net_income.
Watch: Large realized losses from credit or equity holdings during a downturn.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Reported total assets fell materially from 539,306,000,000 USD in FY 2023 to 161,254,000,000 USD in FY 2025, indicating significant balance-sheet.
Open source ↗Regulatory changes, tax law revisions or an ownership change that limits use of tax carryforwards could materially reduce after-tax returns and constrain capital-management options.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Item 1 Business warns that new laws or interpretations could affect capital, reserving, accounting, investment assets and profitability. AIG's ability to pay dividends and repurchase shares depends on both capital rules and after-tax earnings. Material adverse regulatory or tax changes would lower distributable capital despite operational performance.
Watch: Passage of substantive new international tax rules (OECD-type) that materially increase effective tax rate.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Item 1 Business warns that new laws or interpretations could affect capital, reserving, accounting, investment assets and profitability.
Open source ↗With revenue materially smaller than earlier years, AIG must lift return on equity and return on assets through margin improvement, capital-light growth or buybacks to justify current valuation.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Revenue dropped from 52,157,000,000 USD in FY 2021 to 26,775,000,000 USD in FY 2025, showing material shrinkage in top-line scale. If the company cannot generate higher ROE on a smaller revenue base, the market will re-rate the stock lower despite any headline profitability.
Watch: Failure to improve underwriting margins or continued high expense ratios that prevent ROE expansion.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Revenue dropped from 52,157,000,000 USD in FY 2021 to 26,775,000,000 USD in FY 2025, showing material shrinkage in top-line scale.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Sustained underwriting discipline and conservative reserve-setting will keep underwriting volatility low enough that net underwriting results plus investment income produce repeatable positive net_income. If true, AIG will deliver predictable earnings that justify capital returns and a higher multiple; if false, large reserve hits will reintroduce earnings volatility and capital constraints.
AIG's capacity to return capital and sustain valuation depends on persistent positive operating cash flow arising from underwriting and investment cash yield; cash flow—not GAAP noise—will determine true shareholder returns. If operating_cash_flow stays reliably positive, management can fund buybacks/dividends without jeopardizing solvency; if cash flow weakens, capital returns and the valuation will be cut.
AIG's earnings sensitivity to market yields and credit spreads will be driven by the size and mix of its invested assets; a deliberately smaller, higher-quality asset base can lower volatility but caps investment income upside. If the balance sheet is successfully repositioned to higher-quality, lower-duration investments, earnings become less cyclical and capital returns more durable; if repositioning leaves concentration or duration risk, investment shocks can quickly depress net_income.
Regulatory changes, tax law revisions or an ownership change that limits use of tax carryforwards could materially reduce after-tax returns and constrain capital-management options. AIG's ability to pay dividends and repurchase shares depends on both capital rules and after-tax earnings. Material adverse regulatory or tax changes would lower distributable capital despite operational performance.
With revenue materially smaller than earlier years, AIG must lift return on equity and return on assets through margin improvement, capital-light growth or buybacks to justify current valuation. If the company cannot generate higher ROE on a smaller revenue base, the market will re-rate the stock lower despite any headline profitability.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
it sustains underwriting discipline, converts a smaller but higher-quality balance sheet into consistent operating cash flow, and uses that cash to fund capital returns while avoiding large reserve hits or regulatory/tax shocks.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for American International Group
Where the evidence on American International Group stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 12, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 3 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Sustained underwriting discipline and conservative reserve-setting will keep underwriting volatility low enough that net underwriting results plus investment income produce repeatable positive net_income.
AIG's capacity to return capital and sustain valuation depends on persistent positive operating cash flow arising from underwriting and investment cash yield; cash flow—not GAAP noise—will determine true shareholder returns.
AIG's earnings sensitivity to market yields and credit spreads will be driven by the size and mix of its invested assets; a deliberately smaller, higher-quality asset base can lower volatility but caps investment income upside.
Regulatory changes, tax law revisions or an ownership change that limits use of tax carryforwards could materially reduce after-tax returns and constrain capital-management options.
With revenue materially smaller than earlier years, AIG must lift return on equity and return on assets through margin improvement, capital-light growth or buybacks to justify current valuation.
Bear case: what would count against it
A major catastrophe season (large hurricane, earthquake) producing large insured losses relative to reinsurance limits.
Regulatory capital requirement increase or rating agency action that forces retention of cash.
Large realized losses from credit or equity holdings during a downturn.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in American International Group’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on American International Group, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for American International Group.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
American International Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-03: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
American International Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-24: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
American International Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-16: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A major catastrophe season (large hurricane, earthquake) producing large insured losses relative to reinsurance limits.
- Regulatory capital requirement increase or rating agency action that forces retention of cash.
- Large realized losses from credit or equity holdings during a downturn.
- Passage of substantive new international tax rules (OECD-type) that materially increase effective tax rate.
- Failure to improve underwriting margins or continued high expense ratios that prevent ROE expansion.
AIG news
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Financial statements
AIG income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
AIG: quick answers
- When does American International Group (AIG) report earnings next?
- American International Group's next results are projected for February 9, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 3, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is AIG's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 12.0M AIG shares were sold short, 2.32% of its shares outstanding, up 16.7% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.9 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. AIG short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded AIG?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 3 trades in AIG by 1 filer: 1 purchase and 2 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed AIG trade
- Which well-known investors own AIG?
- 2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported AIG shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Soros Fund Management (George Soros), 0.1%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.1%. Fund portfolios
AIG in well-known investors’ portfolios
2 of 37 funds reported AIG shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George SorosSoros Fund Management | 0.13% | $10.8M | −3.7% | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.09% | $22.0M | +67.4% | Q2 2026 |