Agnico Eagle Mines

AEMNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$185.96
−$4.50 (−2.36%)Today 1M −1.62%
After hours$185.95−0.01%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$190.46
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$185.86–$191.56
Regular-session low and high so far today.
1.3M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$134.38–$255.24
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own AEM if its gold-mining asset base keeps converting metal-price strength into high operating cash flow without cost inflation, reserve depletion, or capital allocation mistakes giving back the cycle upside.

AEM price history

Latest price$185.96Today−$4.50 (-2.36%)
AEM -1.49%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Agnico Eagle’s mine portfolio keeps converting favorable gold-market conditions into operating cash flow because production economics remain exposed to metal prices rather than being fully absorbed by mining-cost inflation.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    IFRS annual operating_cash_flow increased from $2.60 billion in FY2023 to $3.96 billion in FY2024 and $6.82 billion in FY2025. If this holds, shareholders get real commodity upside; if it breaks, higher revenue will not translate into owner value.

    Watch: A sustained drop in gold prices driven by higher real rates, a stronger U.S. dollar, or weaker investor and central-bank gold demand.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    IFRS annual operating_cash_flow increased from $2.60 billion in FY2023 to $3.96 billion in FY2024 and $6.82 billion in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Agnico Eagle’s operating discipline and mine cost structure allow metal-price upside to expand gross profit rather than being lost to cost escalation.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Estimated IFRS annual gross_profit increased from $3.69 billion in FY2023 to $5.20 billion in FY2024 and $8.57 billion in FY2025. This determines whether Agnico Eagle is a high-quality gold producer or merely a high-revenue miner during a favorable commodity tape.

    Watch: Declining ore grades, higher strip ratios, lower recoveries, or more complex metallurgy at key mines.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Estimated IFRS annual gross_profit increased from $3.69 billion in FY2023 to $5.20 billion in FY2024 and $8.57 billion in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Agnico Eagle’s strengthened liquidity gives it the option to fund sustaining capital, development, dividends, and downturn resilience without being forced into distressed financing.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    IFRS cash increased from $338.6 million at FY2023 year-end to $926.4 million at FY2024 year-end and $2.87 billion at FY2025 year-end. Balance-sheet strength is a moat in cyclical mining because it lets the company preserve ownership of assets and act opportunistically when weaker miners are capital constrained.

    Watch: A large acquisition or mine-build commitment that consumes cash at peak-cycle gold prices.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    IFRS cash increased from $338.6 million at FY2023 year-end to $926.4 million at FY2024 year-end and $2.87 billion at FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Management must convert the commodity windfall into per-share value by avoiding dilution and low-return growth spending, because mining growth can destroy value if it only replaces depleted ounces at inflated prices.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    IFRS annual diluted EPS increased from $1.53 in FY2022 to $3.78 in FY2024 and $8.86 in FY2025. Owners benefit only if the cash cycle compounds per share; otherwise the company may grow its asset base while shareholders capture little incremental value.

    Watch: An equity-funded acquisition at elevated gold prices that increases ounces but lowers returns per share.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    IFRS annual diluted EPS increased from $1.53 in FY2022 to $3.78 in FY2024 and $8.86 in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Agnico Eagle must replace depleted reserves through exploration, development, or acquisitions at returns that preserve asset quality rather than merely increasing the balance sheet.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    IFRS assets increased from $23.49 billion at FY2022 year-end to $34.47 billion at FY2025 year-end. A gold miner’s apparent earnings power is temporary unless mine life, grade, permits, and development economics are renewed at acceptable cost.

    Watch: Future reserve and resource statements showing declining mine life, lower grades, or higher sustaining capital per ounce.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    IFRS assets increased from $23.49 billion at FY2022 year-end to $34.47 billion at FY2025 year-end.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Agnico Eagle’s mine portfolio keeps converting favorable gold-market conditions into operating cash flow because production economics remain exposed to metal prices rather than being fully absorbed by mining-cost inflation. If this holds, shareholders get real commodity upside; if it breaks, higher revenue will not translate into owner value.

Agnico Eagle’s operating discipline and mine cost structure allow metal-price upside to expand gross profit rather than being lost to cost escalation. This determines whether Agnico Eagle is a high-quality gold producer or merely a high-revenue miner during a favorable commodity tape.

Agnico Eagle’s strengthened liquidity gives it the option to fund sustaining capital, development, dividends, and downturn resilience without being forced into distressed financing. Balance-sheet strength is a moat in cyclical mining because it lets the company preserve ownership of assets and act opportunistically when weaker miners are capital constrained.

Management must convert the commodity windfall into per-share value by avoiding dilution and low-return growth spending, because mining growth can destroy value if it only replaces depleted ounces at inflated prices. Owners benefit only if the cash cycle compounds per share; otherwise the company may grow its asset base while shareholders capture little incremental value.

Agnico Eagle must replace depleted reserves through exploration, development, or acquisitions at returns that preserve asset quality rather than merely increasing the balance sheet. A gold miner’s apparent earnings power is temporary unless mine life, grade, permits, and development economics are renewed at acceptable cost.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its gold-mining asset base keeps converting metal-price strength into high operating cash flow without cost inflation, reserve depletion, or capital allocation mistakes giving back the cycle upside.

Evidence assessed Oct 27, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Agnico Eagle Mines

Where the evidence on Agnico Eagle Mines stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 27, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 4 strengthening and 1 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Agnico Eagle’s mine portfolio keeps converting favorable gold-market conditions into operating cash flow because production economics remain exposed to metal prices rather than being fully absorbed by mining-cost inflation.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Agnico Eagle’s operating discipline and mine cost structure allow metal-price upside to expand gross profit rather than being lost to cost escalation.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Agnico Eagle’s strengthened liquidity gives it the option to fund sustaining capital, development, dividends, and downturn resilience without being forced into distressed financing.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Management must convert the commodity windfall into per-share value by avoiding dilution and low-return growth spending, because mining growth can destroy value if it only replaces depleted ounces at inflated prices.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Agnico Eagle must replace depleted reserves through exploration, development, or acquisitions at returns that preserve asset quality rather than merely increasing the balance sheet.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • A sustained drop in gold prices driven by higher real rates, a stronger U.S. dollar, or weaker investor and central-bank gold demand.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Declining ore grades, higher strip ratios, lower recoveries, or more complex metallurgy at key mines.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A large acquisition or mine-build commitment that consumes cash at peak-cycle gold prices.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Agnico Eagle Mines’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Agnico Eagle Mines, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Agnico Eagle Mines.

peers+14%-15%-1%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical -1% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+14% to -15%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Foreign issuer material report (6-K).

    Agnico Eagle Mines filed an SEC report on 2026-09-29: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Foreign issuer material report (6-K).

    Agnico Eagle Mines filed an SEC report on 2026-09-09: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Foreign issuer material report (6-K).

    Agnico Eagle Mines filed an SEC report on 2026-08-31: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • A sustained drop in gold prices driven by higher real rates, a stronger U.S. dollar, or weaker investor and central-bank gold demand.
  • Declining ore grades, higher strip ratios, lower recoveries, or more complex metallurgy at key mines.
  • A large acquisition or mine-build commitment that consumes cash at peak-cycle gold prices.
  • An equity-funded acquisition at elevated gold prices that increases ounces but lowers returns per share.
  • Future reserve and resource statements showing declining mine life, lower grades, or higher sustaining capital per ounce.

AEM news

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Financial statements

AEM income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

AEM: quick answers

What is AEM's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 6.6M AEM shares were sold short, up 8.4% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.5 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. AEM short interest history
Which well-known investors own AEM?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported AEM shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.1%. Fund portfolios

AEM in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported AEM shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.13%$30.5M+121.8%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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