Addus HomeCare
ADUSNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $126.29 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $123.14–$126.82 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 201.1K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $87.95–$131.59 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own ADUS if aging-driven demand for in-home care keeps winning payer support and reimbursement keeps pace with caregiver labor costs.
ADUS price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Payers and patients continue to choose in-home care as a lower-friction care setting, so Addus can keep converting government, managed-care, insurer and private-pay relationships into demand.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Company description says services are principally provided in-home under agreements with federal, state and local government agencies, managed care organizations, commercial insurers and private individuals. If this holds, Addus has a durable volume runway; if it breaks, the company becomes a reimbursement-taker with limited organic growth.
Watch: State Medicaid programs reduce home- and community-based services budgets or freeze rates in core Addus markets.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Company description says services are principally provided in-home under agreements with federal, state and local government agencies, managed care organizations.
Open source ↗Addus’s payer rates and mix remain sufficient to absorb caregiver wage inflation, preventing growth from being bought by subsidizing labor.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual gross profit rose from $299.7 million in FY2022 to $461.9 million in FY2025. This determines whether revenue growth converts into economic profit or merely passes through higher labor costs.
Watch: Minimum-wage increases, overtime rules or caregiver shortages force wage increases before Medicaid and managed-care rates reset.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual gross profit rose from $299.7 million in FY2022 to $461.9 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗Local scale, compliance infrastructure and branch density allow Addus to spread administrative costs as it expands instead of letting complexity consume the benefits of growth.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating income increased from $68.7 million in FY2022 to $138.6 million in FY2025. If operating leverage persists, earnings can grow faster than revenue; if it fails, Addus is just adding low-margin labor revenue.
Watch: Acquired agencies or new geographies require duplicated back-office, compliance or scheduling infrastructure.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating income increased from $68.7 million in FY2022 to $138.6 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗Government and managed-care receivables remain collectible on reasonable timing, so Addus can fund growth without relying heavily on leverage or equity issuance.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive in each year shown from FY2022 through FY2025. Cash conversion is the difference between a scalable service model and one whose reported earnings are trapped in working capital.
Watch: State Medicaid payment delays or budget impasses lengthen collection cycles.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive in each year shown from FY2022 through FY2025.
Open source ↗Addus can use consolidation to add scale without overpaying or diluting per-share economics.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP diluted EPS increased from $2.84 in FY2022 to $5.22 in FY2025. If acquisition discipline holds, fragmentation becomes a value-creation opportunity; if it fails, growth can destroy owner value despite higher revenue.
Watch: Private-equity or strategic buyers push home-care acquisition multiples above levels Addus can earn back.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP diluted EPS increased from $2.84 in FY2022 to $5.22 in FY2025.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Payers and patients continue to choose in-home care as a lower-friction care setting, so Addus can keep converting government, managed-care, insurer and private-pay relationships into demand. If this holds, Addus has a durable volume runway; if it breaks, the company becomes a reimbursement-taker with limited organic growth.
Addus’s payer rates and mix remain sufficient to absorb caregiver wage inflation, preventing growth from being bought by subsidizing labor. This determines whether revenue growth converts into economic profit or merely passes through higher labor costs.
Local scale, compliance infrastructure and branch density allow Addus to spread administrative costs as it expands instead of letting complexity consume the benefits of growth. If operating leverage persists, earnings can grow faster than revenue; if it fails, Addus is just adding low-margin labor revenue.
Government and managed-care receivables remain collectible on reasonable timing, so Addus can fund growth without relying heavily on leverage or equity issuance. Cash conversion is the difference between a scalable service model and one whose reported earnings are trapped in working capital.
Addus can use consolidation to add scale without overpaying or diluting per-share economics. If acquisition discipline holds, fragmentation becomes a value-creation opportunity; if it fails, growth can destroy owner value despite higher revenue.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
aging-driven demand for in-home care keeps winning payer support and reimbursement keeps pace with caregiver labor costs.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Addus HomeCare
Where the evidence on Addus HomeCare stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 12, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 4 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Payers and patients continue to choose in-home care as a lower-friction care setting, so Addus can keep converting government, managed-care, insurer and private-pay relationships into demand.
Addus’s payer rates and mix remain sufficient to absorb caregiver wage inflation, preventing growth from being bought by subsidizing labor.
Local scale, compliance infrastructure and branch density allow Addus to spread administrative costs as it expands instead of letting complexity consume the benefits of growth.
Government and managed-care receivables remain collectible on reasonable timing, so Addus can fund growth without relying heavily on leverage or equity issuance.
Addus can use consolidation to add scale without overpaying or diluting per-share economics.
Bear case: what would count against it
State Medicaid programs reduce home- and community-based services budgets or freeze rates in core Addus markets.
Minimum-wage increases, overtime rules or caregiver shortages force wage increases before Medicaid and managed-care rates reset.
Acquired agencies or new geographies require duplicated back-office, compliance or scheduling infrastructure.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Addus HomeCare’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Addus HomeCare, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Addus HomeCare.
- Insider-selling clustercondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 9,137 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 30% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
Addus HomeCare filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-14: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Addus HomeCare filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-13: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Addus HomeCare filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-03: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- State Medicaid programs reduce home- and community-based services budgets or freeze rates in core Addus markets.
- Minimum-wage increases, overtime rules or caregiver shortages force wage increases before Medicaid and managed-care rates reset.
- Acquired agencies or new geographies require duplicated back-office, compliance or scheduling infrastructure.
- State Medicaid payment delays or budget impasses lengthen collection cycles.
- Private-equity or strategic buyers push home-care acquisition multiples above levels Addus can earn back.
ADUS news
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Financial statements
ADUS income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.