ADTRAN Holdings
ADTNNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $4.41 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $4.50–$4.73 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.6M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $3.92–$19.98 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own ADTN if Adtran converts its broad fiber-to-data-center product portfolio and emerging AI-driven SaaS services into durable cash flow by capturing fiber/metro optical and edge-network rebuild spending while shifting revenue mix toward higher-margin, recurring Services Support.
ADTN price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Increasing Services Support (SaaS and managed services) mix will lift reported gross profit margin and make margins more stable versus hardware alone.StrengtheningMateriality: High
gross_profit increased from 324,164,000 USD in FY 2024 to 414,955,000 USD in FY 2025 while revenue recovered, implying margin expansion. If true, Adtran will earn higher, stickier margins and justify a higher multiple; if false, revenue remains cyclical and the stock stays value-priced.
Watch: Large incumbents or system integrators (e.g., Ciena, Nokia, Cisco) win architecture-level deals that lock customers into competitor stacks and limit Adtran's services attachment.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
gross_profit increased from 324,164,000 USD in FY 2024 to 414,955,000 USD in FY 2025 while revenue recovered, implying margin expansion.
Open source ↗Operating leverage from higher volumes and normalized costs can convert the product recovery into sustained positive operating income.StrengtheningMateriality: High
operating_income improved from -427,565,000 USD in FY 2024 to -15,596,000 USD in FY 2025, showing a sharp reduction in operating losses. Sustained operating income elimination of large losses is necessary to make the company self-funding and to support a valuation multiple expansion.
Watch: Recurring or new impairment charges, restructuring costs, or DPLTA-related cash absorption (the company must absorb Adtran Networks' losses per the DPLTA) reintroduce large operating hits.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_income improved from -427,565,000 USD in FY 2024 to -15,596,000 USD in FY 2025, showing a sharp reduction in operating.
Open source ↗Sustained spending on fiber buildouts, metro optical upgrades and data-center interconnect will keep product demand growing and support revenue above historical cyclic lows.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
revenue rebounded from 922,720,000 USD in FY 2024 to 1,083,807,000 USD in FY 2025. Hardware revenue growth provides the base that funds services expansion and operating leverage; without it, the business cannot scale services profitably.
Watch: Large Service Providers or municipal customers delay or reduce fiber/optical capex (e.g., funding changes for broadband builds).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
revenue rebounded from 922,720,000 USD in FY 2024 to 1,083,807,000 USD in FY 2025.
Open source ↗Operating cash flow will remain positive and fund necessary R&D and working capital without material equity dilution or debt issuance.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
operating_cash_flow improved to 129,767,000 USD in FY 2025 from 103,571,000 USD in FY 2024. Sustained positive operating cash flow prevents destructive dilution/leveraging and enables funding of SaaS/recurring-revenue investments that re-rate the business.
Watch: Large one-time cash obligations from the DPLTA (e.g., Exit Compensation or required absorption of Adtran Networks' losses) or unexpected working-capital swings could drain cash.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_cash_flow improved to 129,767,000 USD in FY 2025 from 103,571,000 USD in FY 2024.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Increasing Services Support (SaaS and managed services) mix will lift reported gross profit margin and make margins more stable versus hardware alone. If true, Adtran will earn higher, stickier margins and justify a higher multiple; if false, revenue remains cyclical and the stock stays value-priced.
Operating leverage from higher volumes and normalized costs can convert the product recovery into sustained positive operating income. Sustained operating income elimination of large losses is necessary to make the company self-funding and to support a valuation multiple expansion.
Sustained spending on fiber buildouts, metro optical upgrades and data-center interconnect will keep product demand growing and support revenue above historical cyclic lows. Hardware revenue growth provides the base that funds services expansion and operating leverage; without it, the business cannot scale services profitably.
Operating cash flow will remain positive and fund necessary R&D and working capital without material equity dilution or debt issuance. Sustained positive operating cash flow prevents destructive dilution/leveraging and enables funding of SaaS/recurring-revenue investments that re-rate the business.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Adtran converts its broad fiber-to-data-center product portfolio and emerging AI-driven SaaS services into durable cash flow by capturing fiber/metro optical and edge-network rebuild spending while shifting revenue mix toward higher-margin, recurring Services Support.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for ADTRAN Holdings
Where the evidence on ADTRAN Holdings stands: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Nov 10, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 4 strengthening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Increasing Services Support (SaaS and managed services) mix will lift reported gross profit margin and make margins more stable versus hardware alone.
Operating leverage from higher volumes and normalized costs can convert the product recovery into sustained positive operating income.
Sustained spending on fiber buildouts, metro optical upgrades and data-center interconnect will keep product demand growing and support revenue above historical cyclic lows.
Operating cash flow will remain positive and fund necessary R&D and working capital without material equity dilution or debt issuance.
Bear case: what would count against it
Large incumbents or system integrators (e.g., Ciena, Nokia, Cisco) win architecture-level deals that lock customers into competitor stacks and limit Adtran's services attachment.
Recurring or new impairment charges, restructuring costs, or DPLTA-related cash absorption (the company must absorb Adtran Networks' losses per the DPLTA) reintroduce large operating hits.
Large Service Providers or municipal customers delay or reduce fiber/optical capex (e.g., funding changes for broadband builds).
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · ADTRAN Holdings
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MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
ADTRAN Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-03: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
ADTRAN Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-29: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
ADTRAN Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-10: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Large incumbents or system integrators (e.g., Ciena, Nokia, Cisco) win architecture-level deals that lock customers into competitor stacks and limit Adtran's services attachment.
- Recurring or new impairment charges, restructuring costs, or DPLTA-related cash absorption (the company must absorb Adtran Networks' losses per the DPLTA) reintroduce large operating hits.
- Large Service Providers or municipal customers delay or reduce fiber/optical capex (e.g., funding changes for broadband builds).
- Large one-time cash obligations from the DPLTA (e.g., Exit Compensation or required absorption of Adtran Networks' losses) or unexpected working-capital swings could drain cash.
ADTN news
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Financial statements
ADTN income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.