Adaptive Biotechnologies
ADPTNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $29.36 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $29.83–$32.13 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 2.6M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 4 projected Projected for 2027-02-04 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $12.00–$32.13 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own ADPT if its adaptive-immune-system platform becomes a must-use clinical and biopharma workflow, not just a promising science platform.
ADPT price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Adaptive’s immune-repertoire platform remains differentiated enough that clinical and biopharma customers continue routing specialized disease-monitoring work to it instead of in-house assays or competing liquid-biopsy/MRD platforms.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue increased to $276.976 million in FY2025 from $178.957 million in FY2024. If this holds, revenue growth has a real demand driver; if it breaks, the platform becomes a niche tool with limited scale.
Watch: Major oncology centers or biopharma customers standardize immune monitoring and MRD work on Guardant, Natera, Tempus, or in-house assays rather than Adaptive.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue increased to $276.976 million in FY2025 from $178.957 million in FY2024.
Open source ↗Adaptive’s specialized assays retain enough clinical and analytical value that growth does not require price cuts or a shift into structurally lower-margin work.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual gross profit increased to $205.617 million in FY2025 from $106.877 million in FY2024. This determines whether growth can create gross profit dollars that fund the platform rather than simply adding low-quality volume.
Watch: Medicare or commercial payers reduce reimbursement for Adaptive’s core clinical tests.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual gross profit increased to $205.617 million in FY2025 from $106.877 million in FY2024.
Open source ↗Adaptive’s lab, data, and commercial infrastructure has enough fixed-cost leverage that incremental demand can narrow GAAP operating losses without a proportional rebuild of spending.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating loss narrowed to $57.123 million in FY2025 from $162.549 million in FY2024. This is the bridge from attractive science to shareholder value; without operating leverage, revenue growth may not become earnings power.
Watch: Adaptive must materially expand sales, medical affairs, or R&D spending to drive adoption, offsetting incremental gross profit.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating loss narrowed to $57.123 million in FY2025 from $162.549 million in FY2024.
Open source ↗Management’s cost discipline and working-capital control give Adaptive enough runway to approach self-funding without distressed financing.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow improved to negative $45.986 million in FY2025 from negative $95.212 million in FY2024. For owners, the upside from platform adoption is diluted or impaired if the company needs expensive capital before cash flow turns positive.
Watch: Payer denials, collection delays, or slower biopharma payments create working-capital strain before profitability arrives.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow improved to negative $45.986 million in FY2025 from negative $95.212 million in FY2024.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Adaptive’s immune-repertoire platform remains differentiated enough that clinical and biopharma customers continue routing specialized disease-monitoring work to it instead of in-house assays or competing liquid-biopsy/MRD platforms. If this holds, revenue growth has a real demand driver; if it breaks, the platform becomes a niche tool with limited scale.
Adaptive’s specialized assays retain enough clinical and analytical value that growth does not require price cuts or a shift into structurally lower-margin work. This determines whether growth can create gross profit dollars that fund the platform rather than simply adding low-quality volume.
Adaptive’s lab, data, and commercial infrastructure has enough fixed-cost leverage that incremental demand can narrow GAAP operating losses without a proportional rebuild of spending. This is the bridge from attractive science to shareholder value; without operating leverage, revenue growth may not become earnings power.
Management’s cost discipline and working-capital control give Adaptive enough runway to approach self-funding without distressed financing. For owners, the upside from platform adoption is diluted or impaired if the company needs expensive capital before cash flow turns positive.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
its adaptive-immune-system platform becomes a must-use clinical and biopharma workflow, not just a promising science platform.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Adaptive Biotechnologies
Where the evidence on Adaptive Biotechnologies stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 13, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Adaptive’s immune-repertoire platform remains differentiated enough that clinical and biopharma customers continue routing specialized disease-monitoring work to it instead of in-house assays or competing liquid-biopsy/MRD platforms.
Adaptive’s specialized assays retain enough clinical and analytical value that growth does not require price cuts or a shift into structurally lower-margin work.
Adaptive’s lab, data, and commercial infrastructure has enough fixed-cost leverage that incremental demand can narrow GAAP operating losses without a proportional rebuild of spending.
Management’s cost discipline and working-capital control give Adaptive enough runway to approach self-funding without distressed financing.
Bear case: what would count against it
Major oncology centers or biopharma customers standardize immune monitoring and MRD work on Guardant, Natera, Tempus, or in-house assays rather than Adaptive.
Medicare or commercial payers reduce reimbursement for Adaptive’s core clinical tests.
Adaptive must materially expand sales, medical affairs, or R&D spending to drive adoption, offsetting incremental gross profit.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Adaptive Biotechnologies’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Adaptive Biotechnologies, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Adaptive Biotechnologies.
- Insider-selling clustercondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 9,137 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 30% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Adaptive Biotechnologies filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
Adaptive Biotechnologies filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-22: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
Adaptive Biotechnologies filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-15: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Major oncology centers or biopharma customers standardize immune monitoring and MRD work on Guardant, Natera, Tempus, or in-house assays rather than Adaptive.
- Medicare or commercial payers reduce reimbursement for Adaptive’s core clinical tests.
- Adaptive must materially expand sales, medical affairs, or R&D spending to drive adoption, offsetting incremental gross profit.
- Payer denials, collection delays, or slower biopharma payments create working-capital strain before profitability arrives.
ADPT news
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Financial statements
ADPT income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
ADPT: quick answers
- When does Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) report earnings next?
- Adaptive Biotechnologies's next results are projected for February 4, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 4, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is ADPT's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 11.5M ADPT shares were sold short, 7.09% of its shares outstanding, down 4.3% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 6.1 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. ADPT short interest history
- Which well-known investors own ADPT?
- 3 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported ADPT shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Viking Global Investors (Andreas Halvorsen), 1.8%; ARK Investment Management (Cathie Wood), 0.3%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
ADPT in well-known investors’ portfolios
3 of 37 funds reported ADPT shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andreas HalvorsenViking Global Investors | 1.8% | $643M | No change | Q2 2026 |
| Cathie WoodARK Investment Management | 0.29% | $44.8M | −0.1% | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.00% | $860K | — | Q2 2026 |
