Adaptive Biotechnologies

ADPTNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

Email me when the ADPT thesis changes

Evidence-based analysis, not personalized investment advice. Every alert email carries an unsubscribe link.

Follow on X
$29.94
+$0.58 (+1.98%)Today 1M +13.02%
After hours$29.55−1.30%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$29.36
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$29.83–$32.13
Regular-session low and high so far today.
2.6M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 4 projected
Projected for 2027-02-04 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$12.00–$32.13
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own ADPT if its adaptive-immune-system platform becomes a must-use clinical and biopharma workflow, not just a promising science platform.

ADPT price history

Latest price$29.94Today+$0.58 (+1.98%)
ADPT +17.87%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

Loading recent earnings…

Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Adaptive’s immune-repertoire platform remains differentiated enough that clinical and biopharma customers continue routing specialized disease-monitoring work to it instead of in-house assays or competing liquid-biopsy/MRD platforms.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue increased to $276.976 million in FY2025 from $178.957 million in FY2024. If this holds, revenue growth has a real demand driver; if it breaks, the platform becomes a niche tool with limited scale.

    Watch: Major oncology centers or biopharma customers standardize immune monitoring and MRD work on Guardant, Natera, Tempus, or in-house assays rather than Adaptive.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue increased to $276.976 million in FY2025 from $178.957 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Adaptive’s specialized assays retain enough clinical and analytical value that growth does not require price cuts or a shift into structurally lower-margin work.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual gross profit increased to $205.617 million in FY2025 from $106.877 million in FY2024. This determines whether growth can create gross profit dollars that fund the platform rather than simply adding low-quality volume.

    Watch: Medicare or commercial payers reduce reimbursement for Adaptive’s core clinical tests.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual gross profit increased to $205.617 million in FY2025 from $106.877 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Adaptive’s lab, data, and commercial infrastructure has enough fixed-cost leverage that incremental demand can narrow GAAP operating losses without a proportional rebuild of spending.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating loss narrowed to $57.123 million in FY2025 from $162.549 million in FY2024. This is the bridge from attractive science to shareholder value; without operating leverage, revenue growth may not become earnings power.

    Watch: Adaptive must materially expand sales, medical affairs, or R&D spending to drive adoption, offsetting incremental gross profit.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating loss narrowed to $57.123 million in FY2025 from $162.549 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Management’s cost discipline and working-capital control give Adaptive enough runway to approach self-funding without distressed financing.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow improved to negative $45.986 million in FY2025 from negative $95.212 million in FY2024. For owners, the upside from platform adoption is diluted or impaired if the company needs expensive capital before cash flow turns positive.

    Watch: Payer denials, collection delays, or slower biopharma payments create working-capital strain before profitability arrives.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow improved to negative $45.986 million in FY2025 from negative $95.212 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

Adaptive’s immune-repertoire platform remains differentiated enough that clinical and biopharma customers continue routing specialized disease-monitoring work to it instead of in-house assays or competing liquid-biopsy/MRD platforms. If this holds, revenue growth has a real demand driver; if it breaks, the platform becomes a niche tool with limited scale.

Adaptive’s specialized assays retain enough clinical and analytical value that growth does not require price cuts or a shift into structurally lower-margin work. This determines whether growth can create gross profit dollars that fund the platform rather than simply adding low-quality volume.

Adaptive’s lab, data, and commercial infrastructure has enough fixed-cost leverage that incremental demand can narrow GAAP operating losses without a proportional rebuild of spending. This is the bridge from attractive science to shareholder value; without operating leverage, revenue growth may not become earnings power.

Management’s cost discipline and working-capital control give Adaptive enough runway to approach self-funding without distressed financing. For owners, the upside from platform adoption is diluted or impaired if the company needs expensive capital before cash flow turns positive.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its adaptive-immune-system platform becomes a must-use clinical and biopharma workflow, not just a promising science platform.

Evidence assessed Oct 13, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Adaptive Biotechnologies

Where the evidence on Adaptive Biotechnologies stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 13, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 1 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Adaptive’s immune-repertoire platform remains differentiated enough that clinical and biopharma customers continue routing specialized disease-monitoring work to it instead of in-house assays or competing liquid-biopsy/MRD platforms.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Adaptive’s specialized assays retain enough clinical and analytical value that growth does not require price cuts or a shift into structurally lower-margin work.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Adaptive’s lab, data, and commercial infrastructure has enough fixed-cost leverage that incremental demand can narrow GAAP operating losses without a proportional rebuild of spending.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Management’s cost discipline and working-capital control give Adaptive enough runway to approach self-funding without distressed financing.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Major oncology centers or biopharma customers standardize immune monitoring and MRD work on Guardant, Natera, Tempus, or in-house assays rather than Adaptive.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Medicare or commercial payers reduce reimbursement for Adaptive’s core clinical tests.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Adaptive must materially expand sales, medical affairs, or R&D spending to drive adoption, offsetting incremental gross profit.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Adaptive Biotechnologies’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Adaptive Biotechnologies, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Adaptive Biotechnologies.

peers+15%-13%+1%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical +1% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+15% to -13%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • Insider-selling clustercondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 9,137 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 30% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Adaptive Biotechnologies filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Entered a material definitive agreement.

    Adaptive Biotechnologies filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-22: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Other material event.

    Adaptive Biotechnologies filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-15: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Major oncology centers or biopharma customers standardize immune monitoring and MRD work on Guardant, Natera, Tempus, or in-house assays rather than Adaptive.
  • Medicare or commercial payers reduce reimbursement for Adaptive’s core clinical tests.
  • Adaptive must materially expand sales, medical affairs, or R&D spending to drive adoption, offsetting incremental gross profit.
  • Payer denials, collection delays, or slower biopharma payments create working-capital strain before profitability arrives.

ADPT news

Loading headlines…

Financial statements

ADPT income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

ADPT: quick answers

When does Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) report earnings next?
Adaptive Biotechnologies's next results are projected for February 4, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 4, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is ADPT's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 11.5M ADPT shares were sold short, 7.09% of its shares outstanding, down 4.3% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 6.1 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. ADPT short interest history
Which well-known investors own ADPT?
3 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported ADPT shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Viking Global Investors (Andreas Halvorsen), 1.8%; ARK Investment Management (Cathie Wood), 0.3%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

ADPT in well-known investors’ portfolios

3 of 37 funds reported ADPT shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Andreas HalvorsenViking Global Investors1.8%$643MNo changeQ2 2026
Cathie WoodARK Investment Management0.29%$44.8M−0.1%Q2 2026
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.00%$860K—Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

ScoutJUST THIS STORY

LET’S MAKE THIS USEFUL · 1 OF 5

How would you like me to explain this?

Tell me what you want from this read. Start with a quick note, then adjust the details. Your other stories stay as they are.

We’ll remember your view of this story. The published article stays unchanged.

THIS STORY’S READING VIEWStandard · The whole picture

Clear explanations with context. Both sides of the evidence.