Nvidia drew nearly one in four Kalshi stock-perp trades as its shares fell 5.5%
The median Nvidia trade was $72. SpaceX and Micron each drew about twice as many dollars on far fewer trades.
Kalshi recorded 16,622 trades in its NvidiaNVDA+4.41% perpetual futures during Tuesday’s U.S. stock session, more than in any other stock or fund perp on the exchange. That was 24% of the trades but just 9% of the dollars. Nvidia shares closed down 5.5%.
The perp tracks Nvidia without delivering shares. Kalshi traders exchanged $11.5 million of it between 9:30 a.m. and 4 p.m. Eastern, putting Nvidia fifth by dollar volume. SpaceXSPCX+0.66% led with $25.6 million, followed by MicronMU+15.04% at $22.8 million.
| Stock | Traded in 24 hours | Traded in regular session | Regular-session trades | Median trade in session |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micron (MU) | $34.9 million | $22.8 million | 5,642 | $940 |
| SpaceX (SPCX) | $31.4 million | $25.6 million | 6,897 | $1,099 |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | $28.8 million | $11.5 million | 16,622 | $72 |
| Costco (COST) | $17.3 million | $12.6 million | 2,778 | $1,983 |
| Sandisk (SNDK) | $13.1 million | $11.6 million | 5,704 | $1,247 |
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | $12.5 million | $9.4 million | 7,876 | $358 |
| Apple (AAPL) | $11.6 million | $9.2 million | 2,969 | $613 |
| Palantir (PLTR) | $9.7 million | $6.0 million | 997 | $4,074 |
| Exxon Mobil (XOM) | $8.9 million | $1.8 million | 671 | $312 |
| Meta (META) | $6.4 million | $1.2 million | 247 | $1,000 |
A $72 median trade
Half of the Nvidia trades were worth $72 or less. The median was $940 in Micron and $1,099 in SpaceX. Kalshi reports individual executions, so one order can account for several trades. The tape does not identify the traders.
Across Kalshi’s stock and fund perps, the regular session produced 68,432 trades worth $125.4 million. Seven in ten were smaller than $1,000. The largest was a $148,000 sale of the AppleAAPL+1.88% perp at 9:31 a.m. Eastern. Kalshi marked none of the trades as a block.
What a leveraged buyer faced
Nvidia shares fell from Monday’s $178.67 close to $168.89 on Tuesday. Kalshi’s first regular-session trade was the equivalent of $174.06 per share. Its last was $168.93, a 2.95% decline between the two trades.
A hypothetical buyer who put up $1,000 for $4,000 of exposure at the first trade and sold at the last would have lost about $118 before fees and funding. Four times leverage is an assumption for this example. Kalshi’s margin estimates vary with the side and size of the position.
How trading compared with open positions
By 4:56 p.m. Eastern, Kalshi had recorded $194.7 million of trading over 24 hours across its 94 stock and fund perps. Open positions represented $10.5 million of exposure. A contract can change hands several times while the value of positions still open barely changes.
For the 33 stocks also listed on trade.xyz, Kalshi recorded $180.7 million traded against $9.1 million of open positions, about $20 traded per dollar left open. The offshore venue recorded $1.48 billion against $746 million, or about $2 per dollar. Kalshi had more turnover relative to the positions traders kept open. A trader could buy and sell within minutes or hold overnight without either venue’s totals revealing which.