Kolibri profit jumps 31.5% over nine months, but capex forecast rises

What happened

Kolibri Global Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: KGEI) lifted nine-month net income to $16.1 million but raised its 2026 spending forecast.

Net income in the first nine months of 2025 was $12.2 million, so by OptimistFi's calculation the gain is 31.5%. Basic earnings per share rose to $0.45 from $0.34. The figures come from the company's third-quarter management's discussion and analysis, prepared as of Nov. 12.

Kolibri now expects 2026 capital expenditures of $47 million to $48.5 million. The earlier range was $38 million to $43 million. The company also said its credit facility was redetermined in October and borrowing capacity stays at $75 million.

Where the nine-month gain came from

Both volume and price helped. Net revenue rose 43% from the first nine months of 2025. Production rose 15% and average prices rose 24%. The company ties the production gain mainly to wells drilled and completed in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Cash generation followed. Cash flow from operating activities reached $39.5 million against $29.2 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure, was $44.6 million against $31.6 million.

Hedging and costs took some of the gain. The net loss on realized and unrealized commodity contracts was $5.6 million larger, and operating expenses rose $2.4 million. That helps explain why net income grew more slowly than revenue.

What the third quarter shows

Volume weakened in the quarter. Average production fell 9% to 3,867 BOEPD from 4,254 BOEPD in the third quarter of 2025. The company blames wells shut in temporarily while it drilled and completed four new wells, plus normal declines.

Prices covered the shortfall. The average price rose 34% to $64.98 per BOE and net revenue rose 22%. Netback from operations, a non-GAAP measure, climbed to $43.48 per BOE from $30.84. Adjusted EBITDA reached $13.3 million against $11.1 million.

Net income was $3.6 million, the same as a year earlier. The company says a $3.0 million larger net loss on commodity contracts offset a $3.4 million rise in revenue net of royalties. Production and operating expense also rose 14% per BOE, to $8.39.

Why it matters

OptimistFi has argued that Kolibri works if its drilling inventory keeps turning into high-margin cash flow per share. In its view, the company fails if depletion and commodity cycles force it to spend more for less output. The nine-month figures support the first half of that view, with higher earnings per share and wider per-barrel margins.

The raised spending range and the quarterly production dip point the other way. Capital spending through September was $43.3 million, already above the top of the earlier forecast range. Higher prices, not higher volume, carried the third quarter.

The new wells are the near-term answer. The three Clifton Mack wells started production at the end of the third quarter. As previously announced, they produce about 1,911 BOEPD combined, including about 720 barrels of oil per day. The Lovina 5-8-1HF well, the company's first False Caney well, has averaged 636 BOEPD.

The credit line and balance sheet

Available borrowing capacity was $19.5 million at Sept. 30, down from $30.5 million at June 30. Loans and borrowings stood at $55.5 million against $49.5 million at Dec. 31, 2025. The working capital deficit was $12.6 million, unchanged from year-end.

The company met both debt covenants. Its leverage ratio was 1.08 to 1 against a maximum of 3 to 1. The facility matures in June 2029, and the average interest rate at Sept. 30 was 7.7%.

The facility is reviewed twice a year, and the October review left the line unchanged. The filing says future amounts depend on new reserve evaluations, and the size or terms may change. If the borrowing base is cut, the company has six months to repay any shortfall.

What's next

The next quarterly report is the test. It will show whether the Clifton Mack and Lovina 5-8-1HF wells lift production back above the third-quarter level. It will also show whether cash flow per share rises alongside the higher capital spending.

Another rise in the spending range would weaken the case. So would another production dip alongside commodity contract losses. The next semi-annual review of the credit facility will show whether the $75 million holds.