Feature · Kalshi data
Kalshi traders turned over $70 million in Nvidia perps in three hours on Sunday
By 7 p.m., the contract priced Nvidia about 5% below Friday’s stock close. Monday’s opening trade in the shares came in another $4 lower.
Nvidia’sNVDA-1.24% board announced an investigation on Sunday, hours before U.S. stock exchanges reopened. When Kalshi opened at 6 p.m. Eastern, traders turned over $69.9 million in Nvidia perpetual futures in three hours. That was nearly half the stock and fund perp trading on the exchange that evening between 6 and 9.
Each Kalshi contract tracks 0.02 Nvidia shares. On a share-equivalent basis the first trade went through at $185, just below Friday’s $186.64 stock close. An hour later the perp was at $177.23.
Nvidia stock opened at $173.07 on Monday. The stock fell further at the opening bell than Sunday’s first hour of trading had suggested.
- Kalshi's Nvidia trading, Sunday 6 to 9 p.m. ET
- $69.9 million Nearly 47% of all stock and fund perp volume on Kalshi in those three hours
- Kalshi price after the first hour
- $177.23 Sunday at 7 p.m. ET, in share-equivalent dollars
- Nvidia's close on Monday
- $178.67 On Nasdaq
- Stock and fund perp volume outside regular U.S. stock hours
- 32% November 5 through November 9
Sunday, 6 p.m.
The first hour took Nvidia as low as $150.19
The board said it was investigating reports that Chief Executive Jensen Huang had been the target of a foreign intelligence effort. It said it had no reason at the time to believe national security or company secrets had been compromised.
Kalshi’s lowest Nvidia trade in the first hour worked out to $150.19 a share, nearly 20% below Friday’s stock close. By 7 p.m., 969,377 contracts were open, up from 79,898 at the end of Friday trading. At their respective prices, those positions represented $3.44 million and $300,000 of Nvidia exposure. The figures tell us how much exposure traders carried. Kalshi’s public data do not identify their deposits.
Micron’sMU+11.71% perp followed a different path. Its first Sunday trade was 0.9% below its last trade on Friday. It finished the first hour down 2.4% and was back above Friday’s level by 9 a.m. Monday.
Monday, 9:30 a.m.
Monday’s opening price was another $4 lower
By 9 a.m. Monday, Kalshi’s Nvidia perp was trading at the equivalent of $175.69 a share. Half an hour later, Nvidia shares opened about $4.16 below Sunday’s first-hour close. They recovered to $178.67 by the closing bell, within $1.50 of that Sunday price.
Kalshi gave investors an early market price on the news. The comparison also shows how much that price moved before the far larger stock market opened. Nasdaq recorded 462.7 million Nvidia shares traded on Monday, worth roughly $79 billion to $83 billion at the day’s low and high. Some brokers also offered overnight trading in the shares.
| Time (ET) | Where | Share or share-equivalent price | Change from Friday's close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri. 4 p.m. | Nasdaq, official close | $186.64 | 0.0% |
| Sun. 6 p.m. | Kalshi, first trade | $185.00 | -0.9% |
| Sun. 7 p.m. | Kalshi, end of first hour | $177.23 | -5.0% |
| Mon. 9 a.m. | Kalshi, before the bell | $175.69 | -5.9% |
| Mon. 9:30 a.m. | Nasdaq, open | $173.07 | -7.3% |
| Mon. 4 p.m. | Nasdaq, close | $178.67 | -4.3% |
The pattern
Roughly a third of volume came outside regular stock hours
Kalshi’s stock and fund perps turned over $1.12 billion from November 5 through November 9. About $362 million, or 32%, traded outside the regular U.S. stock session. That includes the half hour before the 9:30 a.m. bell.
Micron led with $195.3 million over those dates, followed by SpaceXSPCX-2.27% at $188.6 million and Nvidia at $166.6 million. Nvidia’s Sunday evening alone accounted for $71.4 million, more than the $51.3 million traded over the full calendar day on Monday.
The rules
Why the perp could fall while its reference price stood still
Kalshi’s stock perps trade from 6 p.m. Sunday to 5 p.m. Friday, Eastern time, with an hour’s maintenance break each weekday. When the U.S. stock market is shut, the exchange holds the contract’s reference price at the last official stock close. Traders can still agree on a different price. The gap during those hours does not enter the calculation for the daily funding payment.
Kalshi estimated roughly four times leverage on Nvidia. At 4x, $100 of margin supports $400 of exposure. A 5% fall costs a long about $20 before fees and funding. An account’s maintenance margin determines when it can be liquidated.
Next
How much exposure remained at 9 p.m.
A federal judge denied a request to halt the launch on November 3. The order left the broader question of the regulator’s authority unresolved.
By 9 p.m. Sunday, 332,296 Nvidia contracts remained open, down from 969,377 two hours earlier. The value of those positions fell from $3.44 million to $1.20 million as traders closed contracts. At Kalshi’s 5 p.m. break on Monday, outstanding exposure was back to $3.43 million.